Yes VET numbers look good on the surface but I'm especially uninspired by the 50% increase they're flaunting when I know that about 3200 of that 4000 user increase is attributable to COSAMP and if we consider a little growth in their numbers it might account for the entire 4000! Last year we added another 1000 VET users to march quarterly numbers so hopefully we can add a similar 12.5% to our 12,000 and end the year with 13,500-14000 VET users.
Last FY, unaudited revenue read at like $7m late April and only increased to $7.5m for the year so if we have a similar % to be added to the unaudited figure touted in this announcement it would lead to an underwhelming $7.9m FY21 or so. That being said, they have clearly stated that there is still some invoicing to be done for direct, reseller and VET in the remaining quarter, how much that will amount to is anyone's guess.
So lets have a crack at guessing...which admittedly has proven a difficult thing to predict. Anyway...if we assume the forever changing 'users' of 113,000 (after specifying 117,000 in last announcement) are definitive and that the make up of them is in fact 56,000 direct, 46,000 reseller and 12,000 without considering some June quarter growth we can use last year's figures to determine where revenue might end up this year.
FY2020 annual we see that we had 112,000 users made up of approx 56000 reseller 46000 direct 9000 VET I will make 1 assumption in calculating where revenue might end up based on the numbers given so far 1. The 3:1 direct:reseller revenue multiple is still valid
Looking at last year's numbers we know that ~$4.7m came from ebook and that was made up of 56,000 reseller and 46,000 direct. therefore... if we assume 'X' is the ARPU for resellers and we know 3X is ARPU for direct we get the following 56000 (X) + 46000 (3X) = 4,700,000 56000X + 138000X = 194000X = 4700000 Therefore X = 4,700,000/194000 = $24.44 Reseller = $24.22 arpu Direct = $72.68 arpu VET = ~$250 arpu
With our current numbers Direct 56000 * $72.68 = $4,070,080 Reseller 45000 * $24.22 = $1,089,900 VET 12000 * $250 = $3,000,000 Total FY21 revenue on current numbers = $8,159,980
That's on current numbers but I think (admittedly without much confidence) that we will put on at least another 1500 VET users (1500*250 = $375,000) and hopefully some more $$ from direct/reseller. An extra $300,000+ or so there (to a total FY21 rev of $8.8m) might leave us with 15-20% revenue growth on FY20 figures.
I feel a little disillusioned and mislead by the company referring to the 117,000 users and displaying it in the graph only to see these numbers change and it be made up of a VET downfall. I'm nothing more than hopeful that they still deliver the implied 17,000 odd VET users which will bring some much needed credibility and confidence back into this play for me.
I'll rejig my expense numbers and see what that means for FY21 EBITDA based on the above figures and share them soon.
RCL Price at posting:
36.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
