Good morning
@Ichimokou, it’s just past 9.00am here. Dog has been walked, my lovely wife is shortly leaving to see our daughter in Oxford, leaving me free to enjoy the day in deep contemplation or as my wife labels it being a Lazy .........(many an insert there I can tell you).
Whose is right? Well in this case it’s quite easy, my wife.
Now with your case in assessing the failure of Mesoblast as a company and as an investment it is a little harder. First of all there will be investors who are sitting on a profit etc, so really the only fair way to assess Mesoblast is whether you believe it will succeed and if it does, at what earning per share/share price will it achieve at the point you sell or have the dividend stream it may afford.
If you believe that Mesoblast will forever burn cash and produce no worthwhile income that would in anyway justify your investment then you will be vindicated. I personally will lose £550,000. So let’s agree that I have more to lose?
Ok so far I hope we have agreed on all my points. (You should never argue with my wife’s assessment, just take that as read, as she has had close to 30 years to judge that one)
Now I am also going to agree with the last four words of your last post...... “you make or you lose”.
News however is not just “noise”, I appreciate the context that you are I think framing that statement, which if I understood your argument, profit and return on capital is the only thing that matters. Well your right, but in the context of investing especially in a biotech company such as Mesoblast, that “noise” is important. Example, FDA, grant EUA for Rem-L. Forget about Novartis, share price does it go up, down or stays where it is? Novartis confirm partnership, Share price up, down or stay where it is? I think the only difference is Novartis will pay $25m upfront. That won’t equate to profit that year, so are these two bits of news just noise? Neither are full approval of a therapy. EUA is just a temporary measure, we don’t have the production capabilities to even scratch the surface of the need in Covid Ards. Novartis real money comes from success fees and a percentage of sales and for that we need to ramp up production (over coming any technical details) and of course get full approval.
How about the Crohn’s trial? We (by that I mean the boffins not a “hole driller” like me) know a lot more about how these therapies work, when and how to use. With that comes greater accuracy in predicting outcomes. How big is that market? Knowing all this do you think that smart people could work out whether after going through the approval process for Crohn’s we would be granted approval by say 2024? Do you think that those smart people could put a discounted value on that income when the next trial results are announced?
All these bits of news are not as said actual sales, but please, would you really see the share price at $2?
Left out Heart and CLBP. Same as above.
Look if Mesoblast went out of business today and let’s just assume that the patents and inventory are worth diddly squit. Then we will be able to categorically say you were correct.
Until then we will have to agree to disagree with our opinion of Mesoblast and it’s prospects. If I am right, then I believe that I will be returning a minimum of 10x on my investment. If you right, then you will have? Satisfaction of not having lost anything. Wow!
However you said that the only thing that is important is whether you make or you lose. If that is the case, the only way you can have made money is by shorting. Are you?
I don’t waste my time posting on threads where I have no financial interest. It is possible that If I was
looking at another company, I might post to garner information to help me decide. But if I decided not to invest I would leave them to it. Why? Because idle contemplation is a full time occupation and there are just so many hours in the day, especially when the wife has given you a number of tasks to complete before her return tomorrow.
So we will have to wait and see whose assessment of Mesoblast is correct
@Ichimokou. As you are not invested or I take it planning to invest, let’s meet back here on this forum in say 12 months and see which one of us is closer to being correct? May I wish you well with all your own investments. Can’t tell if you have any. Perhaps you should consider the opportunity cost of wasting your time on this forum.
regards
Yelrom
(20min delay)