I have seen many posts simply multiplying the production volume and rate at current copper prices and it does look amazing and props to everyone putting some figures up..
As far as dilution goes we will definitely experience some..
As for now without any cap raises =
Barry Cahill (MD) in the past has received 5 million shares in performance rights.
Another 6 million on the way I hope as it means we are still on the right track
As you can see it is going to be slow and steady we will be diluted
at $0.40, $0.45, $0.475 and $0.50.
Each time the share price gets up to these levels for 20 days.. if not sooner with the options above.
Then we have the Convertible Notes issued to MLX for the Acquisition of Patterson, Nifty and Maroochydore, not included in the upfront payment of 24million.
36 Million in convertible notes - these comprise of 4 notes each worth 9 million, can be done before or after the redemption date.
Part of this also includes Options ¨ 20.3 million Options exercisable at $0.314 per Option with an expiry date of 30 March 2022; and
¨ 20.3 million Options exercisable at $0.355 per Option with an expiry date of 30 March 2023.
These options also come with a catch and are not far off the exercise price and less than Barry's Performance rights milestones in cents.
Further dilution occurs when you factor in copper price.
These options will most likely be converted when copper is over $9000 adding more rewards to MLX and further diluting shareholders.
a) 1.1 Shares for each Option if the copper price is between US$7,000 and US$7,999.99 per tonne at the date of exercise of the Option;
b) 1.2 Shares for each Option if the copper price is between US$8,000 and US$8,999.99 per tonne at the date of exercise of the Option; and
c) 1.3 Shares for each Option if the copper price is above US$9,000 per tonne at the date of exercise of the Option.
40.6 million in options now becomes 52.78 million shares
548,569,214
+6,000,000
+52,780,000
= 607, 349,214
Interesting to note Finders finished with only 788million shares before being taken over. so hopefully not too much dilution ahead.
Now, if we move on to the cash flow sheet and what the last major cap raise was it appears they have grossly undermined how much the refurb was going to cost.. although CYM is still learning as they get things analyzed by their contracted engineering company.
Here is the list of what that company intended to spend from the cap raise.
Either that it is very vague.. take into consideration the Early Works,
SX-EW implied to cost 8 million - we have since learnt we are looking at 30 million!
Crusher which we originally thought was ok is now going to need work to the cost of around 10 million!
Gas power station, well your guess is as good as mine.. pretty sure we thought that was ok but now needs maybe a lot of work which we are unsure at this stage how much. If anyone can fill me in on the part titled general it would be much appreciated.
I'm hoping the BRAND NEW accommodation to hold more than 400 people is included in this somewhere seeing as they said they were on to this first thing?
Tailings dam containment where does that fit in?
I'm also hoping the removal or relocation of SX-EW to the other side of the road is included? As well as the possible relocation of the Heap Leach pads.
I'm not knocking their ideas.. I think its great to move some of the infrastructure as it makes sense to drill at your feet first and have the option of creating a much bigger open pit, with you name it, a lot more copper!
As i write this i realize how bearish it sounds.. which is unnatural for me as I fell in love with this stock and think it has a very bright future.
Pics to show you what we spent that 60m on
one thing that gets me really excited is the low AISC, Just my opinion but I see this being closer to $1 per lb rather than $1.70 to $2.20 which is what MLX got.
Purely because of technology and heat leach pad design (managed to achieve 80% copper at Hollandaire after 30 days!)
Finders resources BFS shows a price per lb of $0.88c with a 74% recovery albeit they started with higher grades than us.. but still very positive. Easy to compare when they were producing 25000-28000 ton of cathode a year.
"Heap leach 3 had the best results with a copper recovery of 80.3% after 645 days"
On the flip side of this, there is a reason Finder's Resources (Baz's old company and most of managements) which was going great guns was primed for a take over when a wall failure of the open pit covered 60,000 ton of ore and an issue with the crusher earlier. Had numerous bidders during all of this.
Hence why I believe he knows how to do it right and properly from the get go and has all the experience most small cap miners lack in their decision making. Has he produced copper cathode +25000tpa - yes! has he done so with a low AISC - Yes! Does he have experience with Heap Leach technology and SX-EW plants before - Yes!
Here are the results of Finders first year of Production
Bear in mind the EBITDA is substantially more with CYM considering copper prices were about $2.50
Gary Comb was also part of Finders
Anyway that's enough from me. hopefully there wasn't too many tangents and rambling.
(20min delay)