why the big drop?, page-34

After more pondering and maths...

$75 pre rights approx height area - though some of this was "rubbish" rise caused by "I want rights issue" extra buyers.
$28.90 - let's say $30 rights price
53% share 'addition'... dilution... equals 33% treu total dilution approx.

The difference between $75 and $30 is $45, and at 33% dilution effect that is just $15 of value that should be lost. That is $60

Day 1 of the ex rights they fell to $58, and travelled level all day. THAT is the true value that the market assigned to the rights issue dilution. Pretty close to correct.

The falls since then are a combination of:
1) External market/real-workd factors causing RIO falls.
2) Charting factors showing they were due to curve off highs anyway, thus charters selling.
3) Snowball effect of once a fall sequence begins, it gains momentum until the final dumping blow when the last rats have left the ship. (LOL).

The rights (RIOR) have been tracking the falls, which shows close enough that there is almost no 'rights issue' factor involved, probably since day 1 of the ex-rights with the $15 'correct' fall amount.

The 'punishment' seems somewhat correct for the charting shape, if you move the ex-rights data up the $15 so that charting remains somewhat in-line without the 'charts wrecked' drop it caused.
No trough yet.... but it seems to be getting closer.

I bought more today. (I have enough bank allocated in entry steps to buy every day for weeks if need be).
Always still a 'guess', but it can't be too far away for the turn to come.

The idea of them heading anywhere near the rights value ($29), or even much under $50 area, has no valid support - mathematical or logical etc - as far as I can see. Though there generally is a final "sell off" before a turn, so that has a fair odds chance of needing to accur still... maybe the closing period action today was for that - the late final dive.