why gbi will deliver 10x returns over 12 mths, page-27

TTH

Ideally you need a genotyping assay with a high positive predictive value - PPV (ie. high % of true positives) to compete effectively in ASCUS/Triage and GBI's PapType assay generated significantly stronger PPV data versus Qiagen''s HC2 in the pilot trial (62% versus 50%).

Additionally PapType has the ability to genotype all 14 high risk strains whereby Qiagen and Thirdwave's test only does types 16 & 18. As awareness of other high risk types increases due to the vaccine the ability to genotype all 14 high risk types will be a strong value add of the PapType test.

Other reasons for a 33% market share is that on a cost basis PapType's pricing will be substantially lower than its competitors offering whilst involving fewer handling steps. Cost and ease of use are of paramount importance to high through-put Labs.

Sonic by themselves have 6% of the US market and 8% of Europe (they're already locked in) and discussions with a 'major' US player are already advanced from the last announcement, I assume that this is a Quest or Labcorp and just one of these guys would deliver 30% by themselves.

The real long term sensitivity to GBI's valuation is in screening not ASCUS/Triage as well. It's just an easier market entry strategy to go ASCUS/Triage so that you can build up the data without major cost and largely de-risk the business by becoming cashflow positive sooner.

The low cost gates foundation sponsored CareHPV test is only a high risk test and doesn't genotype and therefore cannot compete in this market.

All other entrants that GBI has been made aware of via its Sonic relationship (understanding as Sonic are #3 in the world and get approaches from all and sundry) are either higher up the cost curve or do not offer the same advantages of Paptype.

In closing I would say that GBI may get even a higher market share than 33%.

cheers

NOTE - that my market share figures are not based upon addressable markets (ie. number of screening age women in the world) as PLT has dubiously done in the past but are actual markets that exist today whereby Labs purchase product.