IN 20 years, we'll be wondering what the climate change fuss was all about or risk getting deep fried (or snap frozen) every time we walk down the street. Criterion won't weigh into that debate -- there's plenty of pseudo-scientists doing that already -- but it's hard to see governments not taxing carbon polluters with the same alacrity as smokers, jaywalkers or fare evaders.
That means energy will be more appropriately priced. In such a climate -- excuse the pun -- there are investment opportunities across the array of clean-technology companies listed on the bourse.
The stocks range from the solidly revenue producing (such as Infigen Energy, formerly Babcock & Brown Wind Power) to biofuels, to what we would politely dub concept stocks (Enviromission wants to build a solar tower near Mildura).
For the sake of discussion we'll narrow the hunt to three emerging plays with the potential to generate (excuse us again) meaningful revenues and earnings.
Ceramic Fuel Cells (ASX code: CFU) isn't a pure clean-renewables company as such, in that its patented household units generate electricity from gas. But far less gas is used to produce the equivalent energy from a lump of coal at the power station.
According to Ceramic Fuel Cells chief Brendan Dow, the units, called BlueGen, should be available in Australia by early next year. A more complex version was launched in Europe in April.
Locally, Dow expects the units to retail at $8000 to $10,000, resulting in reduced energy bills of up to 85per cent. Unlike solar, the unit consistently produces power, but the downside for buyers is that it's not eligible for the same government rebates.
Ceramic Fuel recently raised $30 million, enough to tide the company over for two years, having blown $25 million in a disastrous investment in collateralised debt obligations. The losses are subject to a damages claim backed by litigation funder IMF, so there may be some upside there.
This may sound like a school report, but Dyesol (DYE) is making pleasing progress in its quest to further dye solar cell technology, which works even in gloomy conditions.
Dyesol is a distinctive company in that it's about selling not the panels but the specialist consumables underpinning the technology.
Dyesol dabbles in several global alliances, the most promising being a joint venture with British steelmaker Corus. If all goes well, Corus will produce Colorbond-style roofing sheets that in effect are giant solar panels.
But if you can't be bothered saving the world -- and that's why God invented Bono -- how about providing the denizens of King Island with bounteous wind and solar power?
CBD Energy (CBD) has been doing that for a while now in a joint venture with Hydro Tasmania (aka the devil). CBD also plans a $3 million facility to service the 600-strong population of Chatham Islands, 800km east of Christchurch.
On a much more grandiose scale, CBD was won a licence to build a wind farm at Shannons Flat, between Cooma and Canberra. (Hold those cracks about hot air and pollies.)
CBD -- headed by Gerry McGowan of Impulse Airlines fame -- will seek backers for the $190million project.
CBD made $13.6 million in revenue in the first nine months of 2008-09 and still looks far from profitable. The balance sheet looks a tad light-on, as reflected in CBD's modest $20 million market valuation. It's a rough punt. And beware the curse of local politicians. (Mark Vaile chairs the board.)
Ceramic Fuel Cells (market cap $160 million) arguably is undervalued relative to its global peers, especially as it has a three to four-year head start on the technology. Expect BlueGen sales to be slow until word spreads among the green-tinged chatterati who frequent inner-suburban cafes.
With a market cap of about $110 million, we wouldn't exactly describe Dyesol as unloved.
But it's not hard to see the world-changing potential of Dyesol, which, by the way, is also listed in Germany, where investors tend to understand these stocks better than folk on our sun-kissed shores.
CFU Price at posting:
17.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
