pabs, thx for the summary. I agree with your $10B valuation. But you need to put a time qualifier on that one. I would say by 2025. Or do you mean fair value today?
Talga is subject to quite a lot of execution risk. The fundamentals of the company are stellar, but we dont know the contents and negotiation proceedings of any of the JV. I think this will have the strongest impact on the share price. Off-take agreement details as well, but I dont think there is a lot of wiggle room that would move the share price. Only the existence and offtake volume would matter.
Your point 4 is the demand side. We all know demand is through the roof and I would absolutely love for Talga to produce that much. To confirm, you mean 500ktpa Talnode-C production, right? But so far, I have not seen any way, plan or rumor how they would achieve that. At moment, we are sitting at about 100ktpa Talnode-C production by 2025.
We are not really going to decipher any future development based on currently available information.
Talga Valuation., page-2
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