Xero to $200, page-260

Without starting an apt vs xro debate, I think that Xero has some fundamental issues to overcome. Just a counter point to your bullish stance in case you have confirmation bias --gltah:

1) market cap 2-3x above the stated LCV figure depending on share price lately.

2) Current subscriber growth isn't going to get the LCV to the market cap very quickly. Which means you're paying for multiples of what the business actually has now in real value even extrapolating out a few years.

3) If it was getting true network effects and had pricing power they wouldn't need to spend 30%+ on CAC.

4) Small businesses are being destroyed by covid and globalisation. big business doesn't need Xero. So while the entire market is very big it is shrinking and Xero didn't penetrate those markets % wise effectively pre covid.

5) Pricing power would be charging way more than $30 / month. That's basically 2 x Netflix for something you're suggesting is a key part of the enterprise. Why isn't it $2-5k+ a year / customer?

6) There's huge marginal cost in serving an extra market for Xero due to constant accounting rule changes and differences, which means capex scales with revenue fairly poorly compared to other saas or cloud focused companies. high staff numbers also vs machines or robots.

I think it's an excellent product but it's not a great investment risk reward on current metrics at a market cap above say 1.5 x LCV.