johnstone misinformation, page-17

Tas

while I agree with your sentiment.

one of the very first things you study with regard probability and stats is that the likelihood of a particular outcome on an event is not effected by anyother unrelated outcome.
The heads/tails scenario you have also used does not support your conclusion. each toss of the coin is unrelated and its outcome is discreet.
With that said any drilling event and subsequent drill even on the same play is not an unrelated event and so the probability of success does increase if we make the assumption that there is indeed a chance of success. Please see Sav J post re: the chance of success.