Iron ore price, page-32049

Here is my take Wacko:

The large trading entities know that the likes of BHP, RIO, FMG, etc will be paying record dividends come August/September, one would have to assume that during the months of July and August the share prices of all three will rise somewhere between 15-25% from current levels based on current fundamentals leading into dividend announcements. My opinion only. The lower the shares of the IO companies can be attained now and following month or so then the greater the profits can be when they are offloaded during August and September either prior to ex dividend or afterwards.

One way to push the share prices down is to create fear by media articles, we've heard all sorts of doom and gloom the last month or so yet IO prices still $200 plus but dipping slightly. The AFR publishing an article referencing a document from the Chinese Government that supposedly fell into the hands of the Lowy Institute(possibly fabricated BS) suggesting China is going to move away from Australian Iron Ore consumption and go to the IO powerhouses of Russia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia and Myanmar is truly embarrassing.

If that were possible why wouldn't China have investigated those options 20 years ago when many of their BOF and EAF steelmaking facilities were built ? The four potential IO power houses mentioned in the Lowy report being closer to China than Port Hedland.

China have spent billions in Africa chasing the IO golden goose with not much of a return at this stage.

In my opinion China has no option but to purchase Australian Iron Ore, the only substantial new supplies in the next 3 years or so will be from Australia as with the BHP mine that started shipping this week. The BHP leader Mr Henry appeared to have no concerns re the big 4 new IO power houses, of course he may not have the inside scoops such as yourself.

Be careful of media articles, very wealthy entities and individuals can make substantial amounts of money off the back of these articles which many times don't make any sense such as this one in the AFR.