probabilities, page-11

if there was a hat with 10 cards in it,with 'winner' written on one of them,and you got to draw 3 times out of it, then statistically the above approach works.

wildcat wells are talked about as having a 10 percent chance,not as a mathematical certainty, but as a marketing tool.

less than 10 percent,and the wooducks won't be interested.

claim more than 10 percent,and leave it open for action from aggrieved holders.

10 percent isn't scientific,and can't be used to extrapolate [rubbish in rubbish out]

a drilling program is a well by well snapshot---indeed if you have a bad run,the chance of success for the next well declines, as something has gone wrong in the risk assessment process somewhere.