thursday take off, page-61

Hey loganqld.

You may be right in ALL counts.

However, here's the catch that you need to consider, before relying on lines that you may or may not have drawn correctly before betting your hard earned dollars on a result.

a) 130pm GMT is nonfarm payrolls. This number must be in line at the bare minimum for this market to continue going up. If it misses by a little, the Dow will probably stay flattish. If it misses by a mile (and you can use last night's ADP numbers as a guide, which missed by a little), you have SPX 900 incomming.

b) Its a holiday Friday, thus no one with outstanding positions would want to be left open. This applies to shorts too, so it shold in theory negate each other. If anything, the last hour should tell us which camp has the more shorter term positions (i.e. weaker hands)

c) It's reporting season next week. Historically a highly volatile period. If the companies that report next week do not match their expectations that the market has primed for them, you can expect a swift and severe correction. In fact, judging by the prices of some of these things, unless they come out with statements to imply a more sustainable growth period next quarter, it is likely there will be a sell off too.

d) California defaulting is a serious issue. Issuing IOUs in place of payments for the 5th (or was it 6th) largest economy in the world is highly disruptive, and tends to counteract any green shoot argument.

e) The second derivative (rate of declines slowing down) is starting to prove otherwise. Consumer confidence numbers took a step backwards on Wednesday night. If you add revisions into play, the second derivative has not even started to turn.

While I may seem overly bearish, I wish to stress that its your money and you decide how you wanna play it. It may very well be the market ignores everything above, and focuses on golden crosses, multiple Gann/Elliot/lunar combination analyses and charts.

I just think its not something you want to be on, willy nilly. You'd really have to be sure what your views are. And I think personally for both the bulls and bear camp, tonight is crunch night. It's an either or situation. Which means, its more likely to finish unchanged, leaving everyone on tenterhooks over the weekend.