when she goes...

It's a bit of a crude analysis, but as we all love speculating on what happens next...

I've just been looking at the daily trade figures against daily minimum for NXS over the last two weeks and it's obvious that a lot of folks have bought into this share at above the 40c mark.

I figure they are unlikely to sell out for a loss when there is a good chance that the SP will recover with the announcement that Longtom is finally on line.

So once this happens, my guess is that there will be a great deal of upward pull on the share price with sellers unwilling to part with their shares for under their initial >40c buy price.

Further to this, my reading of the current situation is that while quite a few folks would like to get on board NXS for a sub 40c price, there simply aren't that many sellers willing to oblige.

So I expect the NXS price to languish at about its current value (35-36 cents) until an announcement on Longtom at which point we might see a sudden return to >40c.

Worst case for NXS holders in the short to medium term is if (a) a delay on Longtom, or (b) the next announcement doesn't, in fact, result in an increase in buyers putting upward pressure on SP. Either way, we might see holders cutting their losses.

All entirely speculative, of course, but it does seem to explain the SP and volume behaviour of the last couple of days.

I hope the nice people at NXS oblige us with a positive announcement very soon as it should tell the story.

Anyway, my guess is that "when she goes, she'll go with a bang" - or not :)

Usual disclaimers about not being a financial adviser etc apply!