CAP 6.00% 9.4¢ carpentaria resources ltd

Ann: Ceasing to be a substantial holder, page-44

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  1. 1,462 Posts.
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    Hi Tran

    I like this stock and holding a significant position (started buying before the JV issues got sorted, but bought more at 14c yesterday) as I believe the rewards could be outsized! This project is brilliant, future proof and the economics are great, and yes I do believe this is undervalued quite a bit.

    Having said all that I do think a bit of balance might be needed. I think the reasons CAP is still under 100M MC are that the JV issue also came with infighting on the BOD so I suspect the market at this stage is not 100% convinced it will be smooth sailing from now. They will have to show progress to gain that trust again IMO.

    Unfortunately this whole JV issues also has lost them some very valuable time! They could have been much closer to production in these times of elevated IO prices (they may now miss the boom altogether....) and this could also be a mayor issues when it comes to getting Mitsui back on board. Apart from the obviously broken trust between Mitsui and CAP, which was the reason the withdrew, Mitsui now has many more potential future suppliers of very high grade Iron Ore. The lost time has given several competitors of CAP the chance to catch up and Mitsui could now contact MGT. FMG, MGU and probably others as well to get 67%+ Iron Ore.

    So I am certainly hoping that they will be able to get Mitsui back on board as I think this would be huge! And a massive catalyst for the share price... I also think if they manage that, other might follow which will mean more finance towards the BFS and building the mine and much less dilution for us SH. However I think this is far from a certainty.

    If they don't manage to get Mitsui back, and no others step up I think the current MC will become a real issue.... Not great to have to raise 35M for a BFS if your MC is under 100M, not to mention the hurdle of 1.4Bilion to get to actual mining....

    So I think finding offtake partners that are willing to have some skin in the game will be critical the coming weeks and months and could be the catalyst for this to really rerate. If this happens dilution would be much, much less and this could be one of the best investments anyone could do. If it doesn't happen it might become an uphill battle... certainly if the competition passes them and Iron Ore price come down in the future.

    Anyway I am happy holding for the moment and hoping for good news soon. Just thought I provide a bit of balance.
 
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