bolt ??has bolted
Would doubt if it would bolt at this price,
if you read up on reports it looks well valued to me
• Funding for the Stage II flotation plant approved with
commissioning expected in 2nd quarter 2004. This expansion
will increase copper and silver production by approx 50% to
20,000 t Cu and 1.8 moz Ag.
• Implementation and commissioning of Stage II flotation plant
and expansion at Dikulushi should provide the next quantum
leap in Anvil’s profitability and cashflow. RFC estimates
Anvil’s net profit will rise from A$13.9m in financial year 2004 to
A$27.5m in 2005 as the new plant becomes operational.
• Anvil's unhedged copper and silver production profile
provides excellent leverage to the two metals. A 10% rise inthe copper price increases our NPV@ 20% valuation by 14%.
Anvil is one of the few Australian listed mining companies with
strong leverage to copper and exposure to silver production.
• Anvil’s share price has experienced a strong rerating over the past six months rising from 13cps to 48cps. According to RFC forecasts the share price is now reflecting the benefits of the Stage II expansion, as the NPV valuation @ WACC (20%) is 36cps fully diluted and 46cps if a more market representative discount rate of 10% is used.
Forward 2005 earnings and cashflow multiples are still modest at 4.0x and 3.6x respectively.
• Anvil has strong growth potential as the exploration potential surrounding Dikulushi is exceptional and largely untested.
RFC believes there is a strong probability that reserves at Dikulushi could at least be doubled as deeper extensions of the orebody are outlined and satellite deposits outlined.
• The key negative for the company is the political risk aspects
of operating in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Whilst the
political and military situation in the country is currently stable,
the country has had a long history of civil war and unrest.
Should the political situation in the Congo become unstable
or security in the region deteriorate there is a risk that the
Dikulushi operation could be disrupted or impaired. Investors
in Anvil should be aware of these risks and monitor the
political situation within the Congo closely.
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