some observations, page-7

Cyberio, NEWTG and Ors.

Don't let doubts creep in now. Never apologise for having a strong opinion. At the end of the day it is you who will either have a massive pay off or not based on your investment decisions. As over-popularised as diversifiaction is an investmet tool, remember that Waren Buffet, one of the world's richest men practices exactly the opposite. He sais "Diversification is a protection against ignorance. It makes very little sense for those who know what they are doing."

The question is, do you think you know what you are doing? i think i do...and i have considerable money where my mouth is.

From what i can gather you guys have been holding for a long time. I only bought into Newsat this year so i can't really appreciate your 'holding pains' but if there's anything i can pride myself on, it's being a good market timer and a 'rainman' when it comes to calulating risk and probability - By my calculation, i'd say that 3 out of 4 times the activity we are seeing with NWT is worthy of a strong but. For the record i have only owned 5 ASX shared in the last 3 year - i trade forex almost exclusively.



I don't believe for a second that todays activity is random. On a friday and the first friday after the financial year... I mean come on! How transparent is that. You don't pump 80k into a penny dredful regardless of net worth 2 days after the fin year results are finalised without knowing something. All too much of a coincidence.

It just adds to the argument that on the balance of probabilities, we are going to get something big out of Newsat soon.

And for the record, i can appreciate where the knockers are coming from. NWT has a history of under-achieving (that's an understantement) and over-promising. If you don't like it, feel free to say so, and put your money elsewhere. It's not a competition, and noone can tell you what to do with your own monwy.

The other thing to note is that in the majority of cases, price movement tends to precede medium term fundamental results. That means that there's a good probability that any big share price increase in the next month or 2 will be followed by a follow-through or over-shooting in the share price (increase) due to good financials or other news well after the fist big movements in the share price have occured.