china announces three child policy, page-34

The only problem with that picture is that you have assumed zero social mobility which is simply not correct, especially in China with the pace of economic development in recent years.

You have effectively described a rigid caste system in which the class you are born into is the one you die in, and then projected birth rates onto that.

But the whole reason there is a market for premium imported IF in the first place (aside from the contamination scandals associated with domestic brands) is that a middle class has emerged and is expanding, thereby impacting on consumer preferences in conjunction with birth trends.

Whether the policy change has any impact remains to be seen, as it would depend more on what economic and cultural measures accompany it. I too don't think changing the limit per se is going to change behavior on its own.