NWC 3.03% 3.4¢ new world resources limited

New World Resources Initiated at Speculative Buy by Canaccord Genuity, page-6

  1. 3,331 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 1075
    Got the envelope out.
    NSR US$200 ton, 1mtpa t/put = $200M pa x 6 years initial LOM $1.2B
    less capex $160M = ~$1B / 6 years, less 35% tax = $108M pa x forex = ~$140M AUD averaged FCF pa.
    140M x PE 6 = $840M, 60c per current SOI.
    The online NPV calc coughs up a post-tax 485M AUD @ 12% discount. Pre-tax 850M AUD.

    Upside case.
    10Mt @ 1.25Mtpa. Capex ~US$200M. Same margin. 8y LOM = $1.8B after capex, annualised $225M.
    Less tax x forex = 188M AUD FCF pa. PE 8 = 1.5B, ~$1 per share.
    AUD NPV 12% post tax 605M, pre tax 1.05B.

    All ways looking up.


 
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