possible scenario re that s.a. order

Interesting scenario re this expired $1 mill S.A.order for Chemeq's pig antimicrobial. Looking back, I see that regulatory approval for pigs in Sth Africa happened in July 02, and with minimal marketing, CMQ gained an order in Nov 02, presumably for $1000 per kg for delivery prior to 30 June 04. No doubt the Sth African farmers have been watching the delays in commissioning etc, and have probably decided to play hardball on price. We can only assume that there is no known reason why they would not still want the product. On the other hand, Chemeq not wishing to unnecessarily discount their product, may have been expecting other orders to be confirmed by now, and or regulatory approval rec'd in other major pig mkts ie Aust, Korea and Thailand. From page 39 of their agm shareholder presentation, we see that approval for pigs in Aust, Korea and Thailand must be very close The pig mkt in Korea and Thailand is significant, as various broker reports indicate approx $120 mill. One of these recent negative reports (Criterion in the Aust'n) made a big issue of how big the poultry mkt was in Aust, but I notice on page 39 that poultry approval in this country was not even on the radar screen at that time, as opposed to pigs.
In a nut shell, my possible scenario thinks there might only be a big haggle over price, counter balanced by where in the que each order will finish up. 20 tonne p/a, initially amounts to only 1.6 t p/mth, so a $4-5 mill order or orders means the first 3 mths production is then committed. If this possible scenario was correct, then it really would mean the Sth Africans are playing a major poker style game. No one would blame them for trying to source farm inputs cheaper. If this were to be true, then everything is negotiable, and will be revealed in time. who knows possibly tomorrow.
Having been a long term share holder for a long time now, and having attended the 02 and 03 briefings by Dr Melrose at the Melb Hilton, I have a lot of faith and trust in the good Doctor. One day this man will be Australian of the year, although there are other doctors at Cellestis who also fit this category.
w.r.
t.u.