I'm trying to figure out where your (recent) more pessimistic timeframe and marketshare opinions are coming from...or taking this debate.
Many have, to varying degrees, researched all the points you have raised these recent days. When you say:
“I don't know if you've understood my point.
here it is in plain English.
There will absolutely be more next generation memories beyond 4DS, and beyond ReRAM.
There will be 3, 4, 5 different successful ReRAMs (hopefully 4DS is one of them)
There will be CeRAM.
There will be MRAM.
There will be PCM.
There will be others.
I don't think any LTH's disagree.
But when you suggest:
“4DS will be one of a multitude of different types - each with their own pros and cons. Some are makers and sellers, others contract a maker to fabricate and then brand the product and sell it.”
….and add:
“...they have products ready to launch, but will not launch right now because the market is not there (or rather, not there enough... yet)”
...I have to start wondering what kind of religious or other significant experience you have recently endured, to so dramatically turn your previous views on their collective heads. Let me provide some instances where your views seem to have undergone substantial transformation
There have been many proverbial candles burned ascertaining that other forms of memory can, in various ways, be alternative solutions to the one 4DS is now intending to sell. And I think we can see that there could be other SCM candidates beavering away in their own vacuums, basically hidden from view.
BUT at the same time, the demand for SCM close to DRAM continues to be described as unfulfilled and urgently sought. From the hyperscalers down. And it remains true that while there MAY at some point be competitors in our original sweet spot, none have come out of the closet so far.
...suggest demand is indeed driving the pace of SCM-accommodating architecture such that the first to get close to DRAM will most certainly have a clear and substantial advantage over would-be competitors. As well as a platform upon which to quickly mount it.
You are of course entitled to change your opinion and that is respected. But to see you become so defensive, so apparently unenthusiastic these recent days...what I'm saying is I don't see any dramatic change in the status quo such as to justify what looks to me to be close to a U turn.
