The global immune checkpoint inhibitors market was valued at $10,566 million in 2017, and is projected to reach $56,530 million by 2025, registering a CAGR of 20.1% from 2018 to 2025.
Yes thats right 56.5 billion by 2025
So where does Immutep fit (excluding 761 in auto-immune diseases - which has similar market potential btw).
10 years ago the market for ICI's was zero, zip, nada, (nowt, from where I originate). And still is 'second fiddle' to chemo (general statement).
While the likes of Merck (Keytruda) and BMS (Opdivo) have been forging ahead and achieving great results in many cancers with high PD-1/ CTLA expression, there are a few issues that have to be addressed to maintain and grow their revenue streams.
1. Safety - PD-1 treatments come with increased toxicity.work well but in less than 20% of cancer patients
2. Efficacy - efficacious in only 20% of cancers and low OS - durability.
3. Patent cliff - limited patent life for current blockbusters above - 5-7 years?
Based on recent data ex BMS (Relatlimab) and Immutep (eftilagimod) :-
1. No/minimal safety or dose limiting toxicities issues when combined with SOC or other ICI's.
2. Improved efficacy - Relatilimab +50% PFS and Efti - statistically significant combo improvement in NSCLC and HNSCC.
3. LAG-3 potentially third ICI pillar (anti-Lag-3 blocker and MHC ii adjuvant).
So, how much of the big ICI $ pie could Lag-3 and by default eftilagimod demand/forecast by 2025?
As a relatively 'low cost' adjuvant with current (and potentially new) ICI's - a pure guess 10% of projected ICI revenue?
Suggest current Immutep market cap would significantly increase - by multiples of today's MC when two major events happen later this year.
1. Relatilmab is approved - FDA/EMA in combo with Opdivo. BMS have advised they are in discussions with regulators.
2. AIPAC - final OS results later this year are in line or better than currently known (durability seems to be a major efti benefit). If so, probably no need for a major registration US/EU trial - opens up efti with chemo in commercial $ generating licenses......
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- Ann: Immutep presentation for Jefferies Healthcare Conference
Ann: Immutep presentation for Jefferies Healthcare Conference, page-140
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