gbis projected sales, page-8

Dear Bochman,

GBI has done well to get to this point and seems adept at pulling a rabbit out of the hat when most needed. The last capital raising being the latest, and will ensure the companies survival for at least another 12 months.

As for holding the stock, two things need to be considered:

1)Can GBI successfully capture enough market share to be profitable.
2)Will another company buy out GBI?

In regard to point one everyone is waiting for GBI trail data to come out in August.
I think the trial will be successful,despite the delays and show paptype to be as good as the Qiagen HC2 assay.
But what does that mean?
We know the test works and is currently being used in house by Gribbles. There are lots of HPV tests in the market already and they all more or less work the same.
(See list below).
With TGA approval and a CE mark,the GBI test can be sold in Europe but as A2G pointed out this doesn’t automatically guarantee market share.The GBI assay needs to be significantly better than current assays to capture a large market share,being just as good as Qiagen wont do it.

The second point that GBI may be bought out by another company for mega bucks I think is probably unlikely.For a big buyout to happen the Paptype test needs to be a uniquely powerful technology covered by strong patents like, Third wave’s invader assay technology, which was brought out by Hologic.
The fact that Qiagen was able to make a genotyping assay which is basically the same as the GBI assay without infringing GBI patent rights would indicate that GBI has not locked in a strong patent position on an exclusive piece of the technology.
If a buyer just wanted to fast track access to the HPV market buying GBI might be an option, but lack of access to the US market and the risk’s of taking an ageing technique through the FDA process is a big negative.
Sales of paptype in other markets are possible but will it be enough to get the company in the black? I don’t know.

Some commercial HPV tests. (Dr. Snijders)

• Digene HPV genotyping RH kit Qiagen
• Digene HPV genotyping LX kit, Qiagen
• Amplicor HPV Test Roche
• Linear array Roche
• SPF10/LiPa DDL
• NucliSens EasyQ HPV Biomerieux
• Aptima Gen-Probe
• Human Papilloma Virus reagents Third Wave
• BIOPAP QTS HPV Kit Loxo
• Reveal HPV Real-Time HPV Detection Kit GenoID
• AID STD assay GenID
• AID HPV screening kit GenID
• AID HPV typing kit GenID
• Linear ArrayExtra HPV Genotyping Kit Innogenetics
• PCR Human Papillomavirus Detection Set Takara Mirus Bio
• HPV DNA Chip Biomedlab
• Array Papillomavirus Genomica
• ProDect Chip HPV typing Bcs Biotech S.P.A
• PapType Genera Biosystems
• LCD Array HPV 3.5 Chipron
• Seeplex HPV Genotyping Seegene
• Viroactiv Virofem
• HPV OncoTest Invirion Diagnostics
• Genpoint Tm HPV test Dako-Oxoid
• Abbott RealTime High Risk HPV Abbott
• Luminex HPV Genotyping, Multimetrix/Progen
• Papillocheck, Greiner BioOne
• PreTect HPV Proofer Norchip