I have a very simple Q which over the years made a lot of sense but not so this year.
This TIPS 5Y is showing adjusted for inflation (CPI) is -1.74%. 5Y bond yield is 0.7436%. If the current inflation print = 5% to date, why is there such a big discrepancy in TIPS 5Y?
On Thursday night here in Oz when CPI was announced in US, the price action suggest that they believe that increase inflation is transitory because US equity markets rose especially Nasdaq which is the most sensitive to any inflationary pressure through the potential IR rise. USD was sold off which is odd as the cost of carry against risk currencies has the potential to narrow As a result gold rose in tandem to risk currencies and equity indices.
Yesterday, DXY rose, SPX/NDX also rose while gold got smashed. So suddenly in the spate of one day gold went from being lumbered into the risk basket to the safe haven basket on Friday. All very strange but it is what it is. 10Y bond yields continue to sink indicating bond traders actually believe Fed's transitory inflation narrative meaning gold will not be required as a hedge against inflation.
There is very strong negative correlation between DXY and gold. With DXY in a double bottom, it would appear it will be heading at least from a range back to the March high and gold will sink interim?
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