Good luck where ever you're off to, shame to see more stale bulls exiting but not surprising given the mis-steps and share price performance over a couple of years. I haven't had a Buy sentiment on SFX since mid June'19 when the BFSU was flagged at low 30's. Still wouldn't recommend friends buy today such is the delay, risk and market sentiment. Seems SFX is priced for trouble, discounted for news-driver delays in a bull market plenty are warning is at risk of correction... who wants to buy and hold if even a modest market correction will shale more sellers and provide a lower entry?
In hindsight six months ago after FIRB approval was the time to sell and move on to 1000 resource explorers flying on the whiff of any base metal or lithium opportunity. Obviously if one knew about delays, China only offtakes, scary GR capex quotes etc were coming Jan's JV Execution signing and $131M cash deposit would have been a good place to sell. We didn't, and if like me you have more cash than opportunities in a late stage bull market then selling to shoot for other opportunities doesn't make any sense.
If raising cash isn't the driver, only questions should be... what is the risk:reward at low 30's over a 6 month, 12 month, 24 month view? and how am I placed if SFX goes lower in a market correction and/or deeper trouble hits the JV? I'm a stale bull also and I see more risk than most, but on balance I can't see anything with a better risk:reward than SFX right now on a 6 month time frame. SFX is priced not much above it's share of JV cash and considerable tangible/intangible investments already sunk into the project. Unless there really is another shoe to fall not yet raised, SFX looks priced for bad news in a bear market when every other stock i see is priced for perfection in a bull market
Markets can be terribly inefficient sometimes, I continually over-estimate how slowly news can permeate. Five weeks ago the COO of RIO's Richards Bay Minerals (RBM) was assassinated on the way to work, the second senior manager to be shot dead in 2 years. RBM has suspended the development of Zulti Sth for community unrest and violence issues since 2019, without significant investment the Sth African supply of ilmenite to the RBM slag smelters will end ~2030 with considerable zircon by-product production drop. Then last couple of weeks more violence as mine site machines were torched at RBM... the place us going from bad to worse if you follow the news as I do.
Then on the weekend finally there is an article about RBM violence and troubles for RIO, and ILU opens up at $8.50 this morning from a $7.75 close on Friday. Suddenly news that's been floating around the web for weeks is front page and tremendous for TiO2-zircon prices and ILU if the situation cannot be salvaged and RIO closes their SA mining operations. Hopeless, where are the analysts doing their job? Anyway, what's good for the goose is good for the gander... SFX is highly leveraged to the zircon price needless to say, and trouble for RBM would mean more to SFX than ILU one would have thought. What, upside, SFX, who... un-followed and unloved no question.
(20min delay)