so much for kohlers whale rolling over, page-9

KG

Well done.

I am up somewhat also today and decided to sell into the rally. I would not criticise Kohler, as last year we had a very high level of volatility with some up days making it seem that we were going to be up and away when in fact they were a great chances to exit.

The analysts I read (David Rosenberg, Bill Cara, Peter Grandich, Tim Wood) all say the US market is heading down - how far down varies a lot depending who you want to believe. Rosenberg's newsletter of 13 July said he sees another 10% decline for the US, and that economically the US will not be out of the woods for another 2 years.

The financial situation in Europe is unbelievably bad. The US state and local governments are mostly bankrupt. The US banks are basically insolvent if their "assets" were correctly valued, unemployment is probably around 16% and headed towards 20% in the US (similar for much of Europe), trillions more of debt and asset values are yet to be wiped out around the world, and Japan is also falling apart. China could implode through a range of pressures, and its banks are making questionable loans and who really knows how solvent they really are, and besides they may decide to shaft Australia further.

It would not take a lot for the financial contagion to resume around the world. Even our mightly NAB has been caught out with bad CDOs (some $13-14 billion I believe), and perhaps our other banks may also be affected, but I am not aware of how bad the situation is.

So for me caution is still the order of the day. I am 38% invested. I hope to follow the general market trend, so I will increase my shareholdings when I believe a market bottom has been found. This is a market for traders and market timers who know how to use technical analysis, rather than for buy and hold (or should I say buy and pray) investors. I wish I had some TA abilities, and since this is a weakness for me I rely on the views of some "experts". May be they are wrong.

This current period feels a lot like early 2008, when we already had some major declines but the worst was yet to come.

The market will always be there for us to play in as long as we manage to keep our play money.

cautious loki