Running discussion on SP, page-46246

Hi mate agree with the first 2 sentences/thought processes.
My answers/thoughts to your responses above are bolded below.

1. Nige in a March interview stated that any raise would be at a higher price than the SP was at the time, which was 22c-23c.
A) Unfortunately I take very little of what is said by Nige and look more towards what is done. Additionally/Unfortunately he doesn't control the equity markets so what was, is not what is, or what will be done. If people were interested (hypothetically) at 25c then i would have signed that deal in an instant CR at premiums are rare - if they're genuinely available you take them. I give 1% chance they're still willing to pay that and at best maybe you get a similar premium to trading price.

2. Nige at recent shareholder Preso's stated that a placement would not necessarily have a discount....as lots of funds around looking to take some action.
A) In essence he went from saying the raise would be at higher price, to not necessarily a discount. The key words 'not necessarily'. Next presentation will be what?

3. Also at the recent Preso, Nige stated that the equity participants they are in discussion with and have access to the data room, have all signed NDA's that also prohibit them from trading in the stock. Whilst they might be prevented, it might still be likely they have other agents acting on their behalf to manipulate the SP to maintain the VWAP at the level they want until the placement happens.
A) Categorically agree here, it was definitely a good move to try and lessen the impact or involvement but appears to no avail. The market makers/big money control what happens unfortunately, and whilst lithium stocks rose AVZ was easily marked down and held. Doesn't take much volume to control a large MC with retail have very little/low appetite.

4. Nige is aware of the SP manipulation....it remains to be played out whether he and the 2 new finance guns can outplay the manipulators for the placement???. Unfortunately I don't think so - they've already successfully pushed down and controlled for 30-45 days. If they want any chance they need to just continue to deliver items on time. Only then might someone (a fund) externally launch at things.

Final comments:
I'd be surprised if anything is done at parity or better. 80/90% chance it will/would be at a discount.

A small raise might have a better chance for parity but i think if you're drumming up equity placement in realms of ~100M USD it's not easily done unless they expect a good ROI (especially a 450M MC. That's either by a discount (too hard to dump 1bn shares on market to make bank on discounted VWAP) or by future upside.

Best outcome is some of the terms regarding escrow conditions and they actually get the equity raise IMHO because it makes FID likely in the shorter term. Not having to revisit this is 3-5 months time.

Might sound a bit blunt and crude but prefer to always sit more conservatively on opinion and then be surprised on the upside. Raises have not been nigel's/managements forte, nor deadlines. Will see if there is improvement on either over next 3-4 months.

SF2TH