Hi Portiss.That’s a great initiative and will look forward to reading. FYI, separate to finalisingbinding offtake negotiations with very substantial industry players, which we knoware in play, the exactness of a completion date is unknown but is probablylikely to come, similar to the mining leases, they will just arrive and IMO, suddenly,and rightfully so, the momentum will change dramatically. So yes, as a reminder, as Mabrook just pointed out, VRX are also currently building upon the 3 mining leases they have alreadyachieved and 3 native tiles they have also already received for notone, but all three projects, Arrowsmith North, Muchae and Arrowsmith Central…These were received over 6 months ago in which time other steps have been takento move closer to production! As a result, we now know that the VRX team has recentlyengaged professional services to commence preliminary Engineering, Finance andother pre-production tasks alongside advancing the EPA process toward approval…
Not to beunderestimated and adding to the above milestones and derisking alreadyachieved, VRX have high quality Resources in excess of 1Bt. One of the largestin the world. IMO, that can not be understated when projecting financialmetrics, valuations and comparisons. We have all of these things now…
Your earlier email from the other day, seemsto be a timely & relevant recap also. Let me attempt to add some colour tothose details.. If we use those original BFS EPS figures, (which may appear conservative based on price increases that have occurred since then), to calculate forward P/E ratio and if we are agreeable that resource miners historically have anaverage PE of about 17.6, (double or more of this during the growthstage),and then project forward to the day when VRX are producing say just 1MT's panot 2MT's pa per project, as per the bfs average over 25yrs, then our market valuation is many number of multipleshigher than today... That’s without much more dilution and assuming Muchae & Arrowsmith Central would be predominantly fundedfrom debt and revenue generated from the binding offtake agreementssecured for the Arrowsmith North Project which I think is likely. This is whywe are already invested in VRX, obviously our past 6 month price range won’tmatter down the track hitting those numbers and looking back. That’s pretty exciting. And that's on an average PE. If you double to quadruple thePE for a growth mining resource with compelling financial metrics, (which I don’tbelieve is unreasonable), then imagine what that does to valuations... They arethe numbers, you can join the dots and fill in the values, that’s what theyare! Ok, now, they are the numbers based on only 1MT per plant. If wedouble the output to 2MT pa per project to align with the projected bfs forwhich current engineering design capacity will be underway, then you can doubleall of that …..
Needless to say, if a glass factory obviously poweredwith renewables was thrown into the mix at some point, then, well, it's justtoo hard to predict at this point, but that could potentially transformVRX to an ASX bluechip. Ha. Move over Woodside... Nowthis comes back to what I wrote the other day about unpredictable share pricebehaviour along the way to production while this gradually comes together insteps and stages, sometimes in parallel and other times a step at a time andsometimes in a leap! Sometimes VRX Valuation moving up in small spikes, orsometimes retrace or consolidate, or sometimes in big leaps, the big picturetrend over the past couple of years is moving higher, that’s clear and things don't go up in straight lines.. So where can the VRX Valuation be in a day or week or monthor a couple more years? To achieve these kinds of Return On Investments,(excluding future potential dividends...), there is time for patience & forthe patient to be rewarded and times to ensure you are in position! Certainlykeep an eye on your hard earned investments, but some need to relax a littleand keep this in perspective with realistic industry timelines and stay focusedon the unfolding big picture. I hope this helps.
Good luck to day traders, but that's a tough art,especially if there is a sudden squeeze to get back in on low supply. Without areliable crystal ball, there is no telling when market moving news drops oranother one or more insto's decide to join the registry along this ride... Thisis not investment advice but just stating what is, as always DYOR
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