discounted valuation $2.92, page-4

Ozgem -

Not sure what will happen from here, I'm still averaging up on the basis that it's definately in play in some form.

The 2-3 months due diligence is a window for archer to have an asset firesale - they would have seen the books during the strategic review along with everyone else. They have $1+ on the table for the UK assets and just need to lock most of it away before making an offer.

Common sense will hopefully provail and the board and idiot fund managers will not get in the way of a carve up as it is clear the value is much higher in a break up (they just wish they could have executed it rather than Archer). The point of the carve up is someone has got to make a decent dollar on the way through - shareholders need to accept this even though the price theorically is below market ... it's ENE fault for getting too much project and geographic diversity ... no one wants the whole thing.

I expect an inital $2.80 offer from Archer with Infratil support, rejected by the board with an revised bid getting support. It will all just take time.