some observations, page-23

Ric/NEWTG,

Yep doing alright. To use a crude but favourite expression, it stood out like dogs balls : ) Just sitting back now and watching what plays out and trying to piece things together.

There's also an interesting dynamic playing out between investors on this forum. A clear division between those who have previously been burned holding NWT and those who have cashed in.

Some good points from both sides - On one hand there's good reason to be suspicious of just about anything we hear from NWT management and on the other hand the point that living in the past will lead to emotional decision-making rather than basing decisions on current relevant factors.

Anyway, that's not the real point of my post. We're all right and wrong at times and even a broken clock is right twice a day. I'd rather focus on what is actually happening now nad try to see if we can make any sense of it. Obviously we had a very exciting day today, and it was a nice shock to wake up to 0.006 (I'm not lazy - i live overseas). But there's still something amiss with NWT in my view.

Personally I'm not really convinced that the financials are going to be overwhelmingly great (i'd love to be proven wrong). Firstly you have the cleverly crafted letter subtley delaying expectations of profits until FY09/10. Secondly, if they really were signing up to some high value contracts, then surely we would have more 'internal' buying an higher volumes rather than what appear to be calculated and strategic chomps. In any event, there is a perception that most of the bad news (unless it is fatal) is pretty much factored in to the share price.

At times with Newsat i feel like a scientist trying to discover the elusive unifiying theory of physics. There's just something missing which would mean it all makes perfect sense, but we don't have the missing parts. The beauty for us is that we don't necessarily need to know what is missing, only whether it is likely to be positive or negative. For me, there is a big missing part, and when you put that together with the strategic buys and rising share price (general reluctance to sell at lower levels and willingness to do so at high volumes at market) i think we are going to hear something good.

From a technical perspective, we have a break out too, with no real resistance until about 0.1. Once we break through 0.1 we have to go back quite a while before we have any firm resistance (0.14 in early 07). If i could chance my arm, i would expect we get to 0.1 soon, then maybe a bit of consolidation before we shoot through and hit significantly higher levels. Most of the bad news is factored in to the miserable share price. Any real/tangible news should be held onto tightly and all technical resistance levels will be insignificant if we get any worthy news.