Ian I would not be surprised that much of any Chinese log importation ban effecting timber exports is NOT of huge consequence to Australia and that it a little more complex than an edict from the big panda. The global demand for fibre is very strong and will so continue.Some of the previous volume (to China) may not return, as some timber exporters have been ripped off by dodgy Chinese companies and will be unlikely to have rekindled (sorry about the pun) interest.
I have a long time friend who exported one ship hold load of logs and managed to prevent being ripped off on the next by withdrawing the subsequent consignment after waiting for a delayed payment for the first.
Another acquaintance whose timber business was forced into liquidation due to a disgraceful failure to pay by a Chinese importer. It is not only the timber industry that has many examples of cowboy Chinese import companies, the MO of which is to pay for the first shipment develop a little trust and then default (after receiving subsequent product). Whether it is a strategy issued from above or not is of no matter.
Trust is shot in the timber industry and I daresay in others as the word is spreading. I too have personal bad experiences of the dodgy machinations of Chinese equity and its demands in Australian enterprises and am aware of other business where a cavalier approach to our laws and business ethics have been trashed. Australian politicians are wholly to blame for the latter ... providing (prior to the new FIRB rules) a one way traffic of financial bastardry to foreign players. Lots of examples exist of such in the mining industry and Hotcopper discussions also.
The sooner we return to a more diversified export market model the better, and it is happening.
