future earnings now take over mcap, page-55

The main difference is that BCRX has a listing on the Nasdaq rather than the OTC market. The Nasdaq seems to quickly price in new information, especially clinical trial results.

I would expect some positive reaction initially if Phase III is positive, but 40% is unlikely. A license deal for the ROW is more likely to attract massive revaluation from the Aussie market (as is a potential HRV license). Only my gut feel though...