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Looks like moly price estimates have been changed somewhat. Interesting that $18/lb is now being touted.



"Price of molybdenum oxide has risen by 56% in last 3 months
Focus Is Put On Time, When Major Moly Mines Recover Their Production

The market price of molybdenum oxide has been rising steeply. Molybdenum oxide had fallen its price to US$7.70 per lb. of Mo at the end April of 2009 and, then, bottomed out but suddenly rebounded to a level of US$10 from the beginning of June. The market price of molybdenum oxide as of the end of last week has risen by 56% to a level of US$11 – 12 per lb. of Mo compared with the bottom at the end of April as mentioned above.

The traders concerned had once viewed as US$12 per lb. of Mo would be the ceiling at moment but has now turned to be mentioning the continuity of this price level. An outlook for price of molybdenum oxide in the near future has been still on a firm tone and some of traders have an opinion that price of molybdenum oxide is anticipated to rise to US$18 per lb. of Mo by the end of this year.

For a reference, the prices (per lb. of Mo) of molybdenum oxide averaged on movements in the last 2 years were <> 2007 : US$30.60 and <> 2008 : US$29.50, but an analyst has insisted that the oxide price to be averaged on movements in the second half (July – December) of 2009 is thought to come to US$12 per lb. of Mo. Also, the market price of molybdenum oxide to be moved in 2010 is forecasted to be in the range of US$15 – 20 per lb. of Mo.

The supply situation of molybdenum in the western world has suddenly tightened and some of shippers have requested purchasers to accept the conditions as offered for shipments in August to September. Incidentally, JOGMEC of Japan will hold on the 16th of July a tender to purchase 300 tons of molybdenum on content base. Through this tender, it is marked to see how do molybdenum convertors and steel mills in Japan have really felt prices of molybdenum products for the future.

In consequence of that steel mills in Japan have implemented a substantial reduction in their production of special steels, they have held large quantities of molybdenum products as their excessive stocks. In order to decrease these stocks, steel companies in Japan once considered to participate in this tender but, in view of the suddenly and steeply risen prices of molybdenum products at present, it is opaque whether Japanese steel companies will make a bid for this tender or not.

The chemical specifications of molybdenum oxide to be sold by JOGMEC in this time are <> Mo 57.0% min. and <> Cu 0.20% max., which is a similar high grade material to that produced at Codelco of Chile, and a number of such bidders as blast furnace mills will be restricted. Also, since price of molybdenum oxide is anticipated to rise to a level of US$18 per lb. of Mo by the end of this year, in relation to the budget for this sale as already made up by JOGMEC, a possibility to turn to be an unsuccessful tender is becoming strong.

It is certain that China is the country, having stimulated price of molybdenum oxide. China is estimated to have imported approximately 25,000 tons in material of molybdenum oxide at discounted prices from the western countries in the first half (January – June) of 2009 but the Central Government of China has still maintained to impose the high duty of 15% on export of roasted molybdenum from China and announced on the end June of this year their policy, which keeps firmly their attitude to preserve natural resources in China.

By this announcement, market price of molybdenum oxide has risen to a remarkable extent and, even after the resumption of molybdenum production at Huludao area of Liaoning province has been accelerated, it is still forecasted that a pressure on supply of molybdenum from China to the western countries will be reduced considerably.

In view of the fact that price of molybdenum oxide has risen to a level of US$12 per lb. of Mo, molybdenum producers in North America have already commenced to loosen the structure to reduce their molybdenum production and, following Thompson Creek Metals which has decided to increase their molybdenum output by 4 – 6 million lbs. per annum, Freeport-McMoRan once announced in November of 2008 to decrease their molybdenum production by 10 million lbs. per annum but is now strongly anticipated to loosen this cutback. – TEX Report"