MSB Trading 2021 - paradigm shift, page-6183

Ooops - I've posted in the wrong thread (I'll get the other one removed).
This should go here...


MESO did a little better than MSB, but not all that much better.

I have to admit I was more excited by yesterday's announcement than the market
But, the market will learn and catch up to my guesses in time
And they are just daily guesses - just for fun - whilst waiting for Mesoblast to progress, as I'm here LT anyway.

In any case, I'll try to sum up why I was very happy with yesterday's news:

1. Grunenthal has seen the recent P3 and still committed to the deal - so the fear generated for the failed Primary endpoint is unjustified when the secondary endpoint is a significant result
2. Grunenthal are still committed to the deal, even though the trial is done in the US. Grunenthal only have the CLBP rights for EU and Latin America. And yet, they still commit to the deal for some other pharma to benefit in the US? Why would they do that? Maybe because they will win handsomely once the product is approved in EU and Latin America. Maybe, because they have justification to believe in the science?
3. The trial will satisfy two regulatory body US and EU
4. SurgCentre investment makes strategic sense now - doesn't it?
5. AFR have done maths wrong! So I can have my own maths $150m - $112.5mill = $37.5m difference. But, $17.5m was already received. So the difference is only $20m. I'll put that down as $20m for not conducting a trial in EU. For more in depth maths - have a read of this by@dachopperhttps://hotcopper.com.au/posts/54224799/single

That's enough for CLBP.
So where does this put us for other indications?
4 shots at goal still in-tact

With that I would say that market will get to my guesses, but it may take more than one day.
I'll be interested in the SP when we past $2.20 on our way back to the $2.30s

GL MSB'ers and stay strong
Onwards and upwards