Had another look at this overnight. The announcement says $2.50 less any dividends paid. So if RHP does decide to pay a special dividend, its going to come off the purchase price. The only additional benefit to shareholders on top of the $2.50 would be franking credits attached to any dividend paid, and these won't amount to much.
I now think that the "$31m net cash position condition" is to enable RHP to waste millions on advisors, lawyers and other snouts-in-troughs suits to give the Board an excuse to accept the $2.50 offer. I've come around to @MonstaAU 's view that due diligence was probably already underway and would have resulted in a "non-conditional, binding" $2.50 offer in the next few days, but the announcement was forced due to Crayon's announcements.
Now think there is only risk to the downside (albeit a very small one) in the situation that Crayon uncovers something dodgy in due diligence. Problem is that its a small risk, but a large downside. If an obvious, synergistic purchaser finds a problem, the acquisition potential of RHP is shot, and the SP will likely be well south of its previous trading range.
RHP Price at posting:
$2.50 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Held
