ARU 0.00% 16.0¢ arafura rare earths ltd

Dilution of shares - Letter, page-67

  1. 19,584 Posts.
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    Yet again, a highly emotive dodge of reality, by one purporting to be some sort of professional, judging by comments here a bucket load of ARU is a very poor indication of economic rationalism.

    Simple reality here is massive CapEx x long lead times to +CF is always going to lead to very heavy dilution, face up to the fact ARU is going to need to raise $500/600M of equity, 2.5/3x current mkt cap, that's heavy.

    Look to the current producer for guidance, they limped along thru basically a 3yr startup plus an extended period of ultra low prices and effectively were forced into a debt/equity swap that resulted ~45% dilution to SH's yet the value proposition proved resilient, largely due to the fact they had secured all the major ROW customers for La, Ce & NdPr, fundamental difference to the US major that collapsed into bankruptcy.

    Regardless a decade of gloss that value proposition simply does not exist here, nor does any remote shadow of the existing ROW customer base. Contrast the extraordinary value proposition from the emerging producer, a +60% TREO, +40% NdPr carbonate product, but even then they've had to pull together a downstream customer base with little to no detail re middle supply chain, still with astute timing Mgt was able to raise the required equity with minimal dilution.

    ARU has never looked remotely like a business, simply lots of talk that has gone nowhere, and going nowhere, that should be patently obviously to everyone, regardless whether they hold stock or otherwise.
 
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Mkt cap ! $383.8M
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16.5¢ 16.5¢ 16.0¢ $208.3K 1.276M

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
33 1533397 16.0¢
 

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Price($) Vol. No.
16.5¢ 568435 10
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