****gold rooted****, page-18

>>Basically what you are saying oh Rivkin's smelly unmentionables ... is that gold may suffer short term weakness ... and may come into its own further down the track if the US economy goes belly up.

I agree.

BUT ... it's a big "if" and is by no means certain.

Best to be out of gold until the direction becomes more apparent imo.

Flexibility is the name of the game in these uncertain times.<<

US dollar is oversold, and should rebound in the short term, meaning gold will be weaker. Gold is the alternate store of value to the US dollar, and long term may become the store of value as the US economy declines compared to higher population industrial nations. The debt levels is what really worries me short term, plus the obvious high oil price, and low capacity to store stocks of oil. The US has had a very good reporting season so far all things considered, but on the jobs figures just released, there seems to be some reluctance to hire. Offshoring jobs is one reason, but another is they maybe using profits to service debt levels. If this is the case, there is no motor to drive the recovery, as jobs provide the spending in such a situation, and the recovery will stall, especially given spending everywhere is being hit by the oil price. If this comes to pass, there will be a tipping point, me thinks. I hope it doesn't come to that, because you know what will happen here, as well.

An Elliotician may argue we are on the down slope of a 5th wave of golds bear market, and the price will sail south of 300. Fundamentals point otherwise, given the previously mentioned long term weakness for the US dollar compartive to nations such as China. China is 4% of the worlds markets, but growing very very rapidly.

Remember, Buffett has bet on cash. That is, he's got 45 billion (wouldn't you like to have that to play with?) This is to say, he's betting on the US dollar becoming long term weaker, meaning there will be net money flowing out of the US sharemarkets. This means they will be cheaper, and Warren will be ready to pounce. Because gold works inverse to the US dollar, this is good for gold, if such a situation arises.

I'm not a Buffett disciple, but I know he's got this money, plus $500 mill in silver bullion somewhere (which is somewhere near the total silver demand world wide for a year), and on fundamentals, I agree with his play.

Reading some of the people who post on here is interesting from my angle, as I don't seem to see to many cautious heads out there. It all seems to be 'ha ha, my stock went up, and yours didn't'. Are people getting a little carried away? Hope I'm wrong for their sakes, and everyone makes some money, and makes the world a much happier, safer place.

(didn't mean that last line. Hope you all burn in hell, suckers!!! Here comes the Crashmonster, eating all your money!!!)