Recommendation, page-247

First quarter next year for completion;
"The baseline studies are integral to completing the fully funded Cabinda Phosphate Project DFS which is now due Q1 2022 and had been on hold due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with teams from HCV (based in South Africa) unable to travel to Angola."
While the team was delayed, they had arrived in Angola in late April;
"(Minbos or the Company) is pleased to provide an update on its Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) with Environmental and Social Impact Assessments (ESIA) now underway with a team from HCV Africa on site in Cabinda to carry out baseline studies on the proposed Cácata Mine site."

We should get DFS updates along the way, possibly this month;
"Other key elements of the DFS are progressing on schedule. DRA is scheduled to complete the Engineering component in July."
With the big recovery in the MAP price, we might also get an update on the project financials because the MAP price is now well above the top of the range considered in the scoping study. MAP was at $780 in late June and the scoping study used a price of $482 as the top of the range.



At $482, NPV was $US260mill or A$350mill. At the current MAP price, according to Next's calculations "Our rough calc shows that US$780 / tonne phosphate gives MNB a high end NPV of US$550M"
US$550 is around A$740mill. That includes nothing for potential for NKP production - see below in bold, point 2. With NKP, and current MAP prices in the high $700's, it is not unreasonable to think the NPV of the project might be more like $900mill - $1billion. As outrageous as that sounds, that's the way it's looking to me. I just can't imagine that the NKP won't add something like 20-40% to the NPV of the phosphate blend project.
I'm disappointed with myself for missing the following part of an announcement released by MNB on the 1st of July which verified the $780/t figure quoted by Next;
"the price of Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) currently US$780/t, more than US$300 higher than the Scoping Study benchmark price, which delivered the $US247M pre-tax NPV"

There is plenty going on at the moment with Lindsay still in Angola, which is likely to provide a stream of news flow over coming weeks and months;

"Lindsay Reed, Chief Executive Officer, has left Australia for Angola to assist in progressing the DFS and the proposed Granulation Plant. The DFS is expected to be completed in H2 2021.
While in Angola, Mr Reed will be progressing a number of important projects and priorities for the Company, which includes the following:
1. Minbos is investigating the potential for zero carbon ammonia production in Angola to provide nitrogen nutrient for farming and ammonium nitrate for the mining sector.
Angola is making large and concurrent infrastructure investments to take advantage of the Country’s unique national resources, specifically existing natural gas production and extensive hydroelectric power generation as well as broad wind and solar potential.
2. The Company is accessing a number of opportunities to produce Nitrogen, Phosphorus, and Potassium (NPK) fertilizer blending plants which are either idle, unused or not operating near capacity. This includes a potential for greater than 200,000tpa of locally
blended NPK.
3. The IFDC and Minbos have jointly written to the Minister of Finance and Economics outlining the program to bring fertilizer to 4 million small landholders with the IFDC having engaged consultants at its own expense to research the market to plan the rollout. Mr Reed is expected to formalise discussions around the AFFPP while in Angola.
The Company will continue to keep the market updated on its progress."
(released 27th April 2021)