$5.30 target price, page-9

Abobo,
You may be confusing earnings with revenue there mate.


For earnings of 53.6cents, this is NPAT. So 53.6/0.7 = 76.57 cents per share gross profit. For 175 million shares, this equates to 134 million profit. Then you have to take into account cash-burn of approximately 30 million.

So that would indicate revenues of approximately $164 million. 164/7% royalties = $2.34 billion in sales. I will assume selling price of $22, to account for donations & lower prices for certain countries. At $22 per does that equates to sales of 106 million doses.

Personally, I won't assume that GSK can actually sell all 190 million doses pa. I also assume the rotocap/rotohaler device capacity will only be available for 2 years. Therefore, I am suggesting that between 100-140million doses pa is around peak production. Fantastic if this is proved in hindsight to be conservative.

I own BTA, therefore I am biased. DYOR