Hi all and I am out of hospital, after the prostate TURP op (which went exceedingly well) and back on deck and rearing to go, as they say. It is obviously disappointing to all to see the recent share price weakness and the price drifting back a touch but I would suggest that a thoughtful and careful analysis of some of the factors that are clearly contributing to this should ease minds that there has been any change in the fundamentals of the company and the status of exploration.
The way I see it, there are a number of factors that have contributed to the recent downwards pressure on the share price. Without any comment on the order of importance of any of these, I think that the following have contributed to this situation:
- The usual end of financial year selling for tax loss reasons - this is not unique to Inca and if you look at a lot of other explorers the same thing is happening;
- probably a number of the long term shareholders (who have stumped up for every CR over the last few years and maybe do not have a lot of spare cash) selling some shares to get the funds to exercise their July options. The downside is it that it clearly is putting downwards pressure on the current share price in the short term but the big upside is that they will inject those funds directly back into the company on the exercise of their July options; and
- There appears to be a deliberate attempt to cap/drop the share price by some one. I can't make sense of it, but for most days over the past few weeks, where the share price has moved up from the opening trade of the day (and especially on days where the company has put out a positive exploration update or announcement), at the close of trade there is a small crossing at a price to basically drop the share price to what it was at the start of the day's trade, or even lower.
The first pressure point will be gone in a couple of days, once this financial year is over, and the last one is not anything that we can have any control over. It is frustrating and there may be an ulterior motive for this but I cannot put my finger on what it might be, at this time. The second reason, mentioned above, is understandable and whilst the outcome is "negative" in the immediate term, there is much upside with the options being exercised and those funds coming directly to the company.
So for me, that is the big picture that is impacting,
in the short term, on the current share price movement. But that is really just the immediate term and,
for me,
the fundamentals of both the company and the status of exploration have not changed. In fact, if you seriously think about it, all the recent ASX releases - particularly on the Frewena projects and Jean Elson - have been incredibly positive and exciting. Based on the recent ASX releases, detailing the results of the independent experts review and analysis of the AMAGRAD geophysical survey of Frewena Far East and Frewena Fable, we now know we have
multiple stand out priority 1 targets for what are considered to be potential Tier 1 IOCG and/or SEDEX targets at Frewena We have also, again, been successful in receiving the maximum co-funding from the NT Government for more exciting AMAGRAD aerial survey work at both Frewena East/Frontier and Jean Elson (as Kalenn keeps noting, this new East Arunta region could be the next big new mineral province and Inca, with not only Jean Elson but also Lorna May and the Hay River projects, has one of the most significant land holding in this province). I have no reason to doubt that these AMAGRAD surveys will also turn up more stand out targets (just as the AMAGRAD survey did for Frewena Far East and Frewena Fable) on these project areas as well. I can honestly say that I think we are spoilt for choice.
The company is also advancing exploration (which I continually try and remind shareholders is a bit like a marathon, rather than a sprint) at an incredibly rapid rate, by normal industry standards. Remind yourselves where we are with the current status of a couple of the NT projects (Frewenas and Jean Elson) and then remember that we did not have most of these barely 2 years ago!!
Drilling is also underway at Riqueza, where again we have multiple stand out Tier 1 targets, so what is there not to like?? I know some are frustrated about delays with the commencement of Peru drilling, most of which has been completely beyond the control of the company, and some are calling to fast track that by bringing in a second drill rig. I have previously tried to explain why that is not a practical or cost effective option and people will either accept that or not.
So thank you very much, I will take all that news happily, every day!! As a number of other shareholders have commented on the various Inca HC threads, this little company is 'punching way above its weight" with the number and calibre of the projects that it has. You would be hard pressed to find a junior explorer with the stand out projects that Inca now holds. Other companies, major included, would be very happy to have just a few of the targets that we currently have.
So let's just hold the faith and our nerves, focus on the fundamentals and the big picture and let this short term 'clutter" and negativity pass. I suspect that we will have strong news flow in the coming months as exploration ramps up on a number of the stand out projects. As always, if anyone has questions or issues they want to raise with me, you are always free to email or ring me.
(20min delay)