Ann: ADX Further Enhances its Oil Price Hedging Position, page-2

The price is good, but their math is questionably deceptive (for a change) ...

• 1 June hedging announcement - 18,035 bbl hedged at US$66.03 from 1 July to 31 December. Estimated at about 100 bpd (98bpd to be precise) . Supposedly 40% of forecasted oil production. So total oil production is 250bpd ...the rest is gas. Total boepd production is 340, down from 430 in early April.
• 14 July hedging announcement - 12,275 bbl hedged at US$71.71 from 1 July to 31 October (100bpd). Yet again estimated at 40% of forecasted oil production. Total boepd production is 320, down from 340 just a month ago.
• 14 July announcement says one third of production unhedged ... we know that 20% of oil production unhedged (I am sure counterparts would not hedge 100% given uncertain production profile over past year), so that is 50bpd of oil for total oil production of 250bpd. The remaining 70 boepd is gas, sort of hedgeable with monthly or seasonal contracts, but priced at less than 50% of oil price on average through the year. They have probably found selling spot is no worse.
• Their statement of "The level of crude oil production now hedged compares to the current field oil equivalent field production of 320 barrels per day resulting in approximately on third of production remaining unhedged. ADX hedging strategy is to lock in the current strong revenues from the operations while retaining some exposure to any further upside in the Brent crude oil price." is rather deceptive, at best.
• As mentioned on June 1, an unanswered question to date is that forecasted gas production of 70boepd is 22% of total production, which is 2x higher than the 11% of total boepd seen in the 15 months from 1 Jan 2020 to 31 March 2021 (for which we have production numbers from the quarterly updates). If historical trends are anything to go by, perhaps the real boe forecast is around 280boepd? (250/0.89)
• They better get their workover campaign going ... while I never expected the 430boepd seen in April to continue, the 9.4% decline in just the past month is not confidence inspiring. ... though I guess it means that the reservoir will be ready for hydrogen storage ahead of plan!!
• Oh, how I wonder what has been happening to the technical report that is supposed to investigate the way forward (or lack thereof) in Romania .. per haps in the next quarterly update at the end of this month.
• Maybe ASX-DayTrader's posted meme on this board was rather appropriate for this stock ... this isn't you Warren Buffet type of company