BC8 maybe mining earlier than that, not late next year. The preso says that once they get their funding, they can build within 6 months. Most of the plant is already onsite. I suspect we should have enough info on that within the next 2-3 months. Markets climb a wall of worry and its irrelevant. If people spend a lot of time reading the death machine media making predictions that rarely come true, go for it. The only real benefit of the media is that it allows investors to buy dumb cheap stocks.
This could be back at 20c? Probably frustration comment more than anything. How can something so good be so cheap? Happens all the time, and that is the opportunity imo. Stocks dont always do what we want in the short term. BC8 is an investor stock with 100% plus return potential over the next 12 months. The assets are real. Its not a trading stock at all and never was. It can be very frustrating watching a stock day to day and that is why its here. People lose it and sell at major discounts. The day to day price will sort itself out when the seller has finished killing themselves. We just did a $20m placement at 67c, so the seller has an issue imo. Its not the company since we only get real news flow and outcomes. You dont raise $20m if your crap with the likes of Templtons.
I think the company has stated that they will mine 2 ore bodies to kick off. Myhree is 183,000oz x 5.2g/t from memory. You start with high grade dirt like that and you can see why its going to print money out the gate. Fingals/ Majestic is going to be the mining centre as its the largest overall open resource area so far. Finance should not be a problem given that is tasty dirt with a very quick pay back.
As i have mentioned before, this looks like someone who may have taken some stock in the last placement who needs to get out for any number of reasons. A longer term holder doesn't do this. Ive seen it happen over the years. Its more common that people think. Hedge funds are not smart investors all the time. Most of them go broke because they are too short sighted and flighty. Imagine taking this thinly traded stock and thinking you were going to turn it for a quick profit. I dont know who the seller is, its just not uncommon. The gold price is doing well.
BC8 has gone through the silly FED speak gold sell down the other month. That effected larger gold producers and some funds may have suffered from that. That gold price sell down is a case in point about hedge funds. Go figure. Im not saying i know what is going on short term and neither will have any effect on where this is going.
Looking cheaper.
This is always running in the background. People should always do what they want. Its like voting.
Five ways toturn down the noise and stay focused as an investor
SHANE
OLIVER
AMP Capital
FOLLOW
It sometimes seems that the worry list forinvestors has become more threatening and more confusing than ever. This was anissue prior to coronavirus – with trade wars, President Trump, socialpolarisation, tensions with China, concerns the Eurozone would break apart,slow growth in Australia, and ever-present predictions of a new globalfinancial collapse. Coronavirus has only added to the worries with hourlyupdates about new cases, lockdowns, vaccines, etc. It sometimes seems that ifcoronavirus won’t get us, inflation and the mountain of debt will. To be surethese risks are real and can’t be ignored, but the risks around investing seemto receive ever higher prominence these days as the digital age enables therapid dissemination of news and opinion. The danger is that all this noise ismaking us worse investors as we lurch from one worry to the next. The key toinvestor success is to manage the noise and stay focussed. This is an update ofa note I wrote a few years ago but the need to turn down the noise is moreimportant than ever.
Evenmore worrying worries
While there’s no denying there are things to worryabout, there is a psychological aspect to this that is combining with theincreasing availability of information, and intensifying competition amongstdifferent forms of media for clicks, which is magnifying perceptions aroundvarious worries.
Firstly, our brains are wired in a way that makesus natural receptors of bad news. People suffer from a behavioural trait thathas become known as "loss aversion" in that a loss in financialwealth is felt much more distastefully than the beneficial impact of the samesized gain. This probably reflects the evolution of the human brain in thePleistocene age when the key was to avoid being eaten by a sabre-toothed tigeror squashed by a wholly mammoth. This leaves us biased to be more risk averseand it also leaves us more predisposed to bad news stories as opposed to good.Consequently, bad news and doom and gloom find a more ready market than goodnews or balanced commentary as it appeals to our instinct to look for risks. So“bad news and pessimism sells”. Flowing from this, prognosticators of gloom aremore likely to be revered as deep thinkers than optimists. As Joseph Schumpeterobserved “pessimistic visions about anything usually strike the public as moreerudite than optimistic ones.”
Secondly, we are now exposed to more informationthan ever on how our investments are going and everything else. We can nowcheck facts, analyse things, sound informed easier than ever. But for the mostpart we have no way of weighing such information and no time to do so. So, itbecomes noise. As Frank Zappa (and maybe some others) noted “Information is notknowledge, knowledge is not wisdom.” This comes with a cost for investors. Ifwe don't have a process to filter it and focus on what matters, we can sufferfrom information overload. This can be bad for investors as when faced withmore (and often bad) news we can freeze up and make the wrong decisions withour investment. In particular our natural “loss aversion” can combine with whatis called the “recency bias” – that sees people give more weight to recentevents in assessing the future – to see investors project recent bad news intothe future and so sell after a fall. A 1997 study by US behavioural economistRichard Thaler and others showed that providing investors in an experiment"with frequent feedback about their outcome is likely to encourage theirworst tendencies...More is not always better. The subjects with the most datadid the worst in terms of money earned." As famed investor Peter Lynchobserved “Stock market news has gone from hard to find (in the 1970s and early1980s), then easy to find (in the late 1980s), then hard to get away from.”
Thirdly, there is an explosion in media outlets allcompeting for our eyes and ears. We are now bombarded with economic andfinancial news and opinions with 24/7 coverage by multiple web sites,subscription services, finance updates, dedicated TV and online channels, chatrooms, individuals’ comments via social media, etc. And, following from lossaversion, in competing for your attention, bad news and gloom naturally trumpsgood news and balanced commentary. So naturally it seems that the bad news is“badder” and the worries more worrying than ever.
I Googled the words “the coming financial crisis”recently and found 352 million search results with titles such as:
·“brace for the next crisis”;
·“stimulus spending could cause thenext economic crash”;
·“cryptocurrencies will lead the nextfinancial crisis”;
·“a new crisis is ahead – can yousurvive it?”.
In the pre-social media/pre-internet days it wasmuch harder for ordinary investors to be exposed to such disaster stories on aregular basis. The danger is that the combination of a massive ramp up ininformation and opinion, combined with our natural inclination to zoom in onnegative news, is making us worse investors: more distracted, fearful, jitteryand short-term focussed, and less reflective and long-term focussed.
Fiveways to manage information & opinion overload
To be a successful investor you need to make themost of the power of compound interest and to do that you need to invest forthe long-term in assets that grow with the economy and not get blown around byeach new worry and fad. The only way to do this is to turn down the noise onthe worry list and the explosion in investment information and opinion. This isgetting harder given the distractions on social media. At an obvious level, itmakes sense to turn off all notifications on your phone or iPad, but morefundamentally, here are five suggestions as to how to turn down the noise andstay focussed as an investor:
Firstly, put the latest worry in context. There’s always been an endless stream of worries.Here’s a partial list since 1900: 1906 San Francisco earthquake; 1907 USfinancial panic; WWI; 1918 Spanish flu pandemic (up to 50 million killed); TheGreat Depression; WW2; Korean War; 1957 flu pandemic; 1960 credit crunch; Cubanmissile crisis; Vietnam War; 1968 flu pandemic; 1973 OPEC oil embargo;Watergate; the cancellation of The Brady Bunch; stagflation in the 1970s; the1979 oil crisis; Latin American debt crisis; Chernobyl disaster; 1987 crash;First Gulf War; Japanese bubble economy collapse; US Savings & Loan crisis;Asian crisis; Tech wreck; 9/11 terrorist attacks; Second Gulf War; theGFC; the Eurozone public debt crisis; US trade wars; President Trump; & thecoronavirus pandemic. But despite this investment returns have actually beengood as shares climb a long-term wall of worry with the result being that since1900 Australian shares have returned 11.8% pa and US shares 10% pa (includingcapital growth and dividends).
And invariably the short-term volatility is drivenby investors projecting recent events around profits, dividends, rents andinterest rates into the future, and so, causing shares to periodically divergefrom long-term fundamental value. So, share market volatility driven byworries, bad news, and bouts of recovery and investor euphoria is normal. It’sthe price investors pay for higher longer-term returns.
Thirdly, find a way to filter news so that itdoesn't distort your investment decisions.There are lots of ways to do this depending on how much you want to be involvedin managing your investments. If you want to be heavily involved it could meanbuilding your own investment process or choosing 1-3 good investmentsubscription services and relying on them. Or simpler still, agreeing to along-term strategy with a financial planner and sticking to it.
Fourthly, don’t check your investments so much. If you track the daily movements in theAustralian All Ords price index, measured over the last twenty-five years or soit has been down almost as much as it has been up (see the next chart). It’slittle different for the US S&P 500. So, each day is pretty much a cointoss as to whether you will get good news or bad as markets are thrown aroundby the daily noise. By contrast, if you only look at how the share market hasgone each month and allow for dividends, historical experience tells us youwill get bad news less than 35% of the time. Looking only on a calendar yearbasis, data back to 1900 indicates that the probability of bad news in the formof a loss slides further to just 20% of the time for Australian shares and lessthan 30% for US shares. And if you can stretch it out to once a decade, againsince 1900, positive returns have been seen 100% of the time for Australianshares and 82% of the time for US shares.
The less frequently you look the less you will be disappointed, and so, the lower the chance that a bout of "loss aversion" will be triggered which leads you to sell at the wrong time. So, try to avoid looking at market updates so regularly and even consider removing related apps from your smartphones & tablets.
Finally, look for opportunities that bad news and investor worries throw up. Always remember that periods of share market turbulence after bad news throw up opportunities for investors as such periods push shares into cheap territory from which strong gains have historically been seen. This is exactly what we saw last year at the height of coronavirus uncertainty.
Concluding comment
There is no denying that things occasionally go wrong weighing on investment returns. But predictions of imminent disaster are a dime a dozen. My long-term experience around investing tells me that it’s far more productive to lean into prognostications of financial gloom because most of the time they are wrong and end up just distracting investors from their goals.
(20min delay)