Cheers Owl, glad to be in good company
A relative newcomer here and still getting fully up to speed on the science and business case.
Good find on the PBS history with canagliflozin. To my mind this is all about reimbursement and insurance. If you can avoid greater costs down the road, then subsidising early stage diagnositc and pre-emptive/preventative treatment is a straight forward equation.
The Stage 2 results seem good and the announcement title almost downplays the significance. Yes Stage 2 showed the "drug improved PromarkerD scores" but when you combine that with the Stage 1 outcome (that the scores correctly predict risk of severe disease) the implication is that the "drug improves risk of severe disease". This seems to be leading to demonstrating "disease modification" for the drug which would presumably be a huge thing for both Janssen, and PromarkerD.
I liken this a little to Paradigm who are in the process of demonstrating disease modification of their drug for OsteoArthritis. The consequence of untreated knee OA is ultimately a total knee replacement at about $30,000, so for insurers/reimbursers a treatment plan that avoids this has huge value. PAR are going to great lengths to prove the disease modifying effects (which interestingly includes a biomarker study) to make this business case compelling.
I'm new here on PIQ and still learning more about the DKD space, but this seems to be the general strategy?
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