thoughts.

Gonna make some calls here. Consider this.

- Past two weeks, the exuberance has been mind boggling. It's almost at fever pitch, and everyone is wondering if this is it, this is going to be the surge to the upside.

- Chartists are starting to ask fundamental questions, which is the same as fundamentalists asking charting questions. Are the banks too expensive here? Of course they are. But they still keep going up, and all the blow off patterns you can see and draw isn't going to change anything until someone with 5 million CBA decides enough is enough.

- Plenty of cash on the sidelines SCREAMING to get in, on any pullback.

- The Squid, turning bullish literally at the start of this rally, calling the market higher even from here, but a recovery in the USD. Perhaps signifying a dislocation between the US carry trade and equity prices.

- I covered on Thursday, and went long, looking for the magnet effect of 1000, in the fit of bullishness. I actually caught myself looking for buying opportunities on Friday, (first time in 4 months), and went long AUD/USD for a quick twist but changed my mind 30 pips higher and went for lunch. (Should have kept the damn thing).

- Past two days that I have been long, the SPX has actually got sold off heavily at 3:30pm US time, as opposed to a ramp for the entire 3 months that I have been short. That's classic top of the range bullishness.

- Several disturbing statistics (listed on the blog below)

- ALL markets around the world, have broken through "psychologically key resistance levels", widely perceived to be the top of the range stuff: Dax 5200, Foot 4600, XJO 4200, Dow 9200. All that remains is the SPX....to crack 1000.

My calls?

1) SPX is probably going to punch through 1000, like all indices. But that's it. And it's got 3 more days to do it, because come Thursday, the jobless numbers are going to disappoint. The markets are expecting a low 300k number. But I feel the real expectation is a sub 300 number. It should have a extended pullback post the job number, due to economic focus, as opposed to earnings focus. If it doesn't, you'll all know that I'm an idiot and a permabear, and lets just buy everything.

2) I'm going to use the remaining tail end of the exuberant surge to reverse my long (hopefully above 1000 spx). I think I'm right here. And if I'm wrong, well I'll know by Thursday, when the SPX stays over 1010 and grinds higher.

3) Earnings results are going to be out of focus after this week, and people are going to realise that the companies beat expectations that were low and that were achieved 100% from cost cutting.

4) The last surge in a bear market rally is always the fiercest, and sucks everyone in. Did we just see it, and are now witnessing the tail end? Or do we have another surge to come, a complete pasting to the shorts to burn everyone up to the Squid's 1060 target before the blowoff?

5) This last bit, need one of you chart gurus to confirm.

"Post the initial crash of 1929-1930 equity rally lasted 147 days and the market was up 46% from it’s low before the apocalypse kicked everyone in the teeth and we went to the all time low! Now we’re 145 days off the March 6th low this year and the market is up 46%…”

This puts it on Tuesday coming(147 days). Art in Cash on CNBC reckons the top of the 1929 bear market rally was 48% and 149 days, which is Thursday (jobs data day)

Now, you all would know I don't put much stock into technicals, prefering to rely on macro, but these kind of coincidences are interesting. And it never hurts to take a very very short term view that history COULD repeat itself.

Then again, I could be a complete knucklehead and we will see XJO 5000 by Friday.