what's it worth right now, page-13

My understanding of the China situation is that permission was given to produce relenza so long as they sell into the Chinese market or to other developing countries. It is a way for GSK to protect itself from countries wanting to break patent. Royalties will however be low or zero.

The market for relenza is limited by:

Whether the flu mutates to a more deadly form
How fast resistance to tamiflu develops
How fast resistance to relenza develops
How fast and how effective flu vaccination is
Stockpiling

If resistance to relenza develops fast then no one will want to stockpile a useless drug. Very high income based on relenza sales will be limited to only a couple of years. I think a more realistic PE is 5 or 6. If LANI results are good then PEs of over 10 are achievable.

Money sitting in the bank just makes BTA a good cheap takeover target. It is what they do with it that will add value.

Mal