Alright ladies and gents, i couldn't help myself i've put together new calculations for AGY's price (not including Tonopah) based on some new information:
- The 10,000 tonne p.a plant endeavoured to be operational by 1 January 2024 will be on top of AGY's 2,000 tonne p.a plant operational from roughly 1 July 2022.
- Jerko is looking to expand the 12.000 tonne p.a operation with a further 10,000 plant on top of that.
- (Existing information) we are aiming for a revised JORC of 507,000 - 724,000 tonnes of lithium.
My calculations are based off the following
- 25% profit tax to Argentina
- 10% cut to Pablo's company (puna or puma or whatever)
- $13,000 USD per tonne of lithium
-$15,000 USD per tonne of lithium from 2024 onwards.
- $4,600 cost per tonne of lithium
- Assumption: 2nd 10,000 tonne plant operational by 1 January 2027.
- Assumption: achieved JORC at middle of estimate = 615,500 tonnes of lithium.
- Life of mine in current JORC is based on feasibility of using mine until 67.3% used = 414,000 tonnes of lithium to extract.
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation Method
Cost of Capital rate used - 7% =
$1.96 valuation
|
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
Column 4 |
Column 5 |
| 1 |
Year |
Lithium P.A |
Profit During Year |
Resource |
Present Value = X1.07^-(n) |
| 2 |
Year 1 2022 |
1000 |
$11,812,000 |
413,000 |
$11,419,091 |
| 3 |
Year 2 2023 |
2000 |
$23,624,000 |
411,000 |
$21,344,096 |
| 4 |
Year 3 2024 |
12000 |
$166,044,000 |
399,000 |
$140,205,078 |
| 5 |
Year 4 2025 |
12000 |
$166,044,000 |
387,000 |
$131,032,783 |
| 6 |
Year 5 2026 |
12000 |
$166,044,000 |
375,000 |
$122,460,545 |
| 7 |
Year 6 2027 |
22000 |
$304,414,000 |
353,000 |
$209,823,363 |
| 8 |
Year 7 2028 |
22000 |
$304,414,000 |
331,000 |
$196,096,601 |
| 9 |
Year 8 2029 |
22000 |
$304,414,000 |
309,000 |
$183,267,852 |
| 10 |
Year 9 2030 |
22000 |
$304,414,000 |
387,000 |
$171,278,366 |
| 11 |
Year 10 |
22000 |
$304,414,000 |
365,000 |
$160,073,239 |
| 12 |
Year 11 |
22000 |
$304,414,000 |
343,000 |
$149,601,158 |
| 13 |
Year 12 |
22000 |
$304,414,000 |
321,000 |
$139,814,167 |
| 14 |
Year 13 |
22000 |
$304,414,000 |
299,000 |
$130,667,445 |
| 15 |
Year 14 |
22000 |
$304,414,000 |
277,000 |
$122,119,108 |
| 16 |
Year 15 |
22000 |
$304,414,000 |
255,000 |
$114,130,007 |
| 17 |
Year 16 |
22000 |
$304,414,000 |
233,000 |
$106,663,558 |
| 18 |
Year 17 |
22000 |
$304,414,000 |
211,000 |
$99,685,568 |
| 19 |
Year 18 |
22000 |
$304,414,000 |
189,000 |
$93,164,083 |
| 20 |
Year 19 |
22000 |
$304,414,000 |
167,000 |
$87,069,236 |
| 21 |
Year 20 |
22000 |
$304,414,000 |
145,000 |
$81,373,118 |
| 22 |
Year 21 |
22000 |
$304,414,000 |
123,000 |
$76,049,643 |
| 23 |
Year 22 |
22000 |
$304,414,000 |
101,000 |
$71,074,433 |
| 24 |
Year 23 |
22000 |
$304,414,000 |
79,000 |
$66,424,703 |
| 25 |
Year 24 |
22000 |
$304,414,000 |
57,000 |
$62,079,162 |
| 26 |
Year 25 |
22000 |
$304,414,000 |
35,000 |
$58,017,908 |
| 27 |
Year 26 |
22000 |
$304,414,000 |
13,000 |
$54,222,344 |
| 28 |
Year 27 |
13000 |
$179,881,000 |
|
$29,944,370 |
| 29 |
|
|
|
|
$2,889,101,029 |
| 30 |
|
Minus Costs for 10,000 project |
$197,000,000 AUD |
|
|
| 31 |
|
Minus Costs for 2nd 10,000 project |
$197,000,000 AUD |
|
|
| 32 |
|
Minus interest on bonds for both projects |
$50,000,000 AUD |
|
|
| 33 |
|
|
|
Net Present Value |
$2,445,101,029 |
| 34 |
|
|
1,250,000,000 shares |
Value per share |
$1.96 |
| 35 |
|
|
|
Or PE ratio of 15 @22k operation |
$3.65 |
PE Ratio Method
PE ratio of 15 used @22k operation =
$3.65 valuation well into the future.
These calculations do not take into account the Tonopah project.
This is just a sharing of my own calculations and are based on several assumptions, everyone uses different methods and rates.
This is not financial advice.
Cheers big ears
-Jez
