As a new poster and recent holder I realise that I'm probably more relaxed then a lot of the current long termers but I'd encourage all not to lose heart. MEL is perfectly positioned for significant growth (IMO DYOR blah blah blah).
Without question all recent selling has been from MAY and not founded on technical issues. I'd say it's semi spiteful (they did have a failed take over and I'd say there's not a lot of love lost)... it's not every day you dump a major holding on the open market. But it gives people an incredible buying opportunity
MEL have derisked a 'significant' gas play and sit on uncontacted gas with access to the east coast market (significant for the size of company that MEL is). They've also announced the inevitable cap raise (what made me hold off from buying earlier) and are exceptional fiscally responsible.
To put things in perspective... the current spot price for gas in $10/GJ. For their reserve estimate of 8PJ on Vali you looking at a very, back of the envelope, value of 80mill - largely derisked thru recent drilling success. On this I've given no value up side to Odin or any future, near field discoveries.
It's also worth highlighting the value of uncontacted gas in the eastern seaboard. This year gas prices have spiked to ~$60/GJ (look up ameo. com. au). Admittedly you're not going to get this all the time but it highlights how tight the market is. Longford is coming off plateau. Current demand is filled by fields such as Snapper but they don't have much more to give and talking to people in the industry are looking at having a significant decline thru next year. The sheer underdevelopment in the energy sector means that there isn't bank of reserves coming on the horizon and the renewable switch can't simply be turned on. None of this upside is factored in to the price.
With Ken at the helm you have someone whose technically competent... Knows the fundamental value and isn't in the game to line his own pocket (very rare in the small company space). So whilst the present is painful and the market is an unpredictable beast... As someone who works in the industry MEL is a diamond in the rough and presents excellent short term and long term value.
I wish I started buying at 2.2c.
