This is for Parsifal and Jo Jo. You love Tasmania and thus may enjoy the new accolade given to it by this study.
Tasmania among best places to survive global societal collapse, new study finds
By Fiona Blackwood
2 hrs ago
© Provided by ABC Business Mr Polin's land included a bunker during the cold war in case of a nuclear holocaust. (ABC)
Tasmania has been ranked one of the top five places in the world to survive a global collapse in society, according to a British study.
Tasmania has been listed alongside New Zealand, Iceland, the United Kingdom and Ireland as potential havens of the future.
The study, published in the journal Sustainability, found Tasmania could become recognised "as Australia's 'local refuge (lifeboat)' as conditions on the continental mainland may become less amenable to supporting large human populations in the future".
While many people have already moved to Tasmania to escape the heat in other states, some doomsday preppers are weighing up the island state as a post-apocalyptic option.
Tasmania scored highly in the report in terms of its climate, electricity supply, agricultural resources and population density.
The study states that rising populations and energy use have led to climate change, increased risk of pandemics and ecological destruction.
As a result, it found that human civilisation is in a "perilous position with regards to its future".
It is not the first time Tasmania has been considered for a potential post-apocalyptic haven.
A piece of land in the state's Central Highlands was bought by Texan billionaire Martin Polin during the Cold War, with plans to use it as a refuge in the event of a nuclear holocaust.
The site includes a concrete bunker built by Mr Polin.
Professor of Human Geography and Planning at the University of Tasmania Jason Byrne agreed the state would be a good option to seek refuge "if things went pear-shaped globally".
Professor Byrne said societal collapse refers to "a significant and permanent decrease in the ability of human societies to meet their needs".
He said a rapid collapse could be triggered by a meteor crashing into Earth while a slower collapse could be caused by famine linked to climate change.
Professor Byrne said Tasmania has plenty of advantages in the event of a societal collapse.
"We have high-quality agricultural land, we certainly have enough food that we produce.
"We've got a hydro-electric system which is more than capable of meeting our needs and we have fairly abundant forest resources … we could draw on."
But could Tasmania handle a bigger population?
Professor Byrne said the state would face problems in terms of its dependence on off-shore sources for oil and fuel.
"Nor do we have large-scale manufacturing for things like clothing production or automobile manufacturing."
He also warns that Tasmania could not cope with a large influx of people.
"Instead of 2,000 people a year showing up here, if we had 20,000 or 30,000 or 200,000 people showing up, there's no way we could meet their needs."
"We just don't have the housing stock available to meet a sudden mass of population increase."
Professor Byrne said there is no data on how many people move to Tasmania each year fearing the impact of future climate change scenarios.
"There's no doubt in my mind that we're seeing the edge of this effect right now.
"That's why I'm here."
Professor Byrne moved to Tasmania with his family from the Gold Coast in 2018.
"I've worked in the field of climate change adaptation for quite a while now and have become increasingly concerned about what the global models are telling us … about the intensity and scale of the change that's happening," he said.
"When the opportunity came to move down here to Tasmania, it was a no-brainer."
Mainlanders already moving south
A woman in her 50s who asked not to be named told the ABC she moved from Perth to Tasmania in 2015 because she and her husband were fearful about the impacts of climate change.
"It was just getting extremely hot for many weeks of the year and so it's fine when you're in your air-conditioned house but then of course you need to leave.
"It really literally is like being punched in the face … the heat is just oppressive."
"It's happening faster than the modelling is predicting."
The couple now live on five acres in Tasmania's south and are looking to ensure they are self-sufficient when it comes to food, water and energy.
"People sort of think it's pretty extreme but … more and more people are coming to that realisation about how urgent it really is."
Top of the list if SHTF
The Real Estate Institute of Tasmania's (REIT) president, Mandy Welling, said she was seeing a rising number of interstate buyers choosing to move to Tasmania.
"In the last 90 days, we've had an increase of about 10 per cent [interstate buyers]," Ms Welling said.
She said climate change is not the only reason Australians are heading south.
"Many of those are telling us that the reason they are doing that is to escape COVID."
"They see our government has made hard and fast decisions and been able to protect Tasmanians."
On the extreme end of people preparing for a societal collapse, a Facebook group of doomsday preppers discussed preferred Australian destinations should the SHTF (shit hit the fan).
Tasmania attracted a number of opinions.
"End of the earth, small population."
"Has handled COVID well, Tassie can easily shut the borders."
"Beautiful but cold."
"Too corrupt and too close to Antarctica, where all sorts of crazy happens."
"Harsh winters that can make growing harder but not impossible."
"Plenty of tiger snakes."
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