Hi Convexity. I am not a delusional bonehead. My thesis is that fmg is worth $30 or more but this is based on maths not on emotion. I think that the long term IO price is going to move upwards structurally because I think that normal investment to increase capacity during a boom is not happening right now. Hence I think the Chinese IO mines marginal cost of supply (approx USD100/t) is the new market price decider. Hence USD is likely to approximate the long term average IO price. At this IO price fmg is worth $30.
However anybody using debt to buy fmg shares is a delusional bonehead. I think fmg will be $30 but if IO falls back to USD100 as I expect then it could be a rocky ride to get there.
Iron ore price, page-34631
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Last
$20.10 |
Change
0.700(3.61%) |
Mkt cap ! $61.88B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $20.26 | $20.49 | $19.94 | $337.2M | 16.71M |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 38056 | $20.09 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $20.15 | 20000 | 1 |
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| Last trade - 16.10pm 27/09/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
| FMG (ASX) Chart |