Hi Brett
Take a bow on your call on the customer receipts for the QTR. I see that in looking for 'fit' on GF's graph depicting the trailing number, it now looks like 11 - 12 months. Rather than dwell too much on the apparent DISCONNECT, I am working the numbers every which way in an attempt to find the CONNECT. May need a few more data points across the various ratios to improve the read. Certainly, expect the full year results (late Aug) to add some colour.
In terms of the 4c, on the surface, the Customer Receipts number for the QTR disappointed. Light ! The positive is the fact that H2 FY21 came in 127 % higher than H1 FY21. Of greater interest, if we accept that there is a greater alignment between reported 'cash outflows' vs reported Operating Expenses in the Financials, then the $4.887m OPEX related outflows (12 months), as reported in the QTRLY, has to be seen as a positive (cost containment). For ease of reference, the half year picture was :
Cash Outflows H1 FY'21......AUD 2.369m
OPEX as per H1 FY'21 .......AUD 2.428m
So just consider say, approx. AUD 5 m in Operating outflows vs the upated ACV number of USD 9.8m ( AUD 13.2m ). Therein lies the longer term prize. Of course, ACV will have no bearing on the income to be reported come late August. I previously argued for Total Revenue (incl the R&D rebate) for FY21 coming in at near AUD 6 m. With the now likely OPEX number coming in the low AUD m 5's, that suggests we will be EBITDA poisitive. As that was based on a build - up of ACV and the carry thereof into the second half, just maybe another over-statement on my part. Time will tell.
Herewith another course to arriving at an indicative Revenue number. This works on the premise that for most businesses which have a consistent payment cycle (measured over time),
Sales Revenue LESS Receivables should equal Customer Receipts
and any payments in 'advance' should be accounted as ' Deferred Revenue' (Balance Sheet)
We now know the Customer Receipts number at AUD 4.071 m. The Receivables number at the end of FY20 was AUD 603 K. The HY FY21 number came in at AUD 333 K. If Customer Receipts in H2 were 127% higher than H1, then Receivables for the Full Year should very conservatively come in at AUD 800 - 1000 K
Suggests Sales Revenue = AUD 4.071m + AUD 800 k
. = AUD 4.871m
Now Add the R & D Rebate which has to be upwards of AUD 700K. So AUD 5.57 m on the Income Line. Material EBITDA ?
As always, I invite comments or observations regarding flaws in the logic. The goal here is to collectively unpack every bit of newsflow and reach a situation that conviction is based on fact and/ or reliable assumption/s. The longer the journey, the better we will get.
Rokewa
