Ann: First EPCC Contract Milestone achieved, page-29

First 29 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
Sudoxe

188 Posts.

70

05/08/21

07:53

Post #: 55042249
Share

Originally posted by Idle Wanderer: ↑

What a dog's breakfast this thread is! Can't view the interview yet but there is no way the Executive Chairman of an ASX listed company would quote a selling price per tonne for urea ($500) and a factory gate production price for urea ($109 per tonne rounded down to $100) and then imply that the profit margin per tonne is $400. No way at all. So that must mean that 19niku, Rusted and "Rocket" and possibly others have completely misinterpreted what was said. Right?
It must be obvious, if you'd thought about it, that there are many costs not covered in the $109 tonne number which must be added to the "production price" before you reach the "profit" number, or you can subtract these from the "revenue" per tonne. It doesn't matter.
Hear are most of them. I may have missed a couple:
1. Repayment of loan principal. Go from 50% financing to 100% financing and loan principal payments double from the equivalent of $14 per tonne in the PFS to $28 per tonne, for the first few years - steadily increasing over the 30 year term of the loan.
+ $14 per tonne.
2. Repayment of interest. Interest is not included in the PFS numbers. So, say, $2.5 Billion borrowed at 4.5% interest = $112 Million per year, or $112 per tonne produced [in the first few years - slowly decreasing].
3. Head Office costs - unknown
4. Rail infrastructure and track rehabilitation - Capital expenditure. Not yet costed
5. Rail operating costs - said to be $40 tonne LCK-ADL. My personal belief - much higher
6. Company tax. At 30% of say $200 per tonne 'real profit' = $60 per tonne.
7. GST based on selling price of $500 per tonne = $45 per tonne [approx]
8. Depreciation - unknown
9. Amortisation - unknown but probably zero.
Well, this looks like about $300 per tonne more expenses, to me, so the true bottom line profit may be as little as $100 per tonne.. But wait, before we get to the steak knives there's one little surprise buried in the PFS. The syngas production equipment has a lifespan of about 15 years and the replacement equipment, costing $349 Million, is scheduled to be funded from earnings, which will need about $23 million per year to be set aside for 15 years.
So at the real bottom line, there seems to be something like only $60 million p.a. actually available for dividends. I'll leave you to work out the cents per share on that.
One thing for sure won't happen. You just won't get 2 million tonnes p.a. of urea out of a 1 million tonne pa nameplate plant.

Expand

Thank you, buy some shares and be wrong or don't and move on? Why are you wasting your time on a stock you don't own, despise and actively attack? Your making just as many "assumptions" as anyone else in this thread so your just as bad. Have a great day

LCK Price at posting: 14.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
8 Upvote

2 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

CC9

Chariot locks in high-potential drill target at Black Mountain, one of the USA's largest lithium landholdings

Week 34 Wrap: HotCopper's top watched; Oz banks cut saver interest; Kamala’s 28% corporate tax; AI’s back

The Rising Tide: How institutional adoption is shaping the future of crypto

PLS

Pilbara blames low lithium prices for 89% drop in profit for FY24

SER

How flooding did Strategic Energy Resources a favour: Four holes down in 'redesigned' gold & copper campaign

There are more pages in this discussion • 89 more messages in this thread...

First 29 Last

Add NRZ (ASX) to my watchlist

(20min delay)
Last 0.5¢		Change 0.001(12.5%)		Mkt cap ! $10.85M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
0.5¢	0.5¢	0.5¢	$2.812K	586.7K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
19	18282745	0.4¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.5¢	15736933	11

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
19	18282745	0.004
77	84313073	0.003
63	134918953	0.002
25	186150000	0.001
0	0	0.000

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.005	15736933	11
0.006	4495604	5
0.007	1429689	3
0.008	470900	3
0.009	300000	1

Last trade - 12.30pm 26/08/2024 (20 minute delay)

NRZ (ASX) Chart

Ann: First EPCC Contract Milestone achieved, page-29

Chariot locks in high-potential drill target at Black Mountain, one of the USA's largest lithium landholdings

Week 34 Wrap: HotCopper's top watched; Oz banks cut saver interest; Kamala’s 28% corporate tax; AI’s back

The Rising Tide: How institutional adoption is shaping the future of crypto

Pilbara blames low lithium prices for 89% drop in profit for FY24

How flooding did Strategic Energy Resources a favour: Four holes down in 'redesigned' gold & copper campaign

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

Ann: First EPCC Contract Milestone achieved, page-29

Top Stories

Chariot locks in high-potential drill target at Black Mountain, one of the USA's largest lithium landholdings

Week 34 Wrap: HotCopper's top watched; Oz banks cut saver interest; Kamala’s 28% corporate tax; AI’s back

The Rising Tide: How institutional adoption is shaping the future of crypto

Pilbara blames low lithium prices for 89% drop in profit for FY24

How flooding did Strategic Energy Resources a favour: Four holes down in 'redesigned' gold & copper campaign

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News